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Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
According to Decrypt, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has canceled the public meeting originally scheduled for this Friday. The meeting was planned for three commissioners to vote and discuss whether to seek public comment on an issuance exemption framework tailored for crypto assets—this would be the SEC's first time advancing targeted legislation for the crypto industry. An SEC spokesperson announced the cancellation citing "unforeseen scheduling issues" without announcing a new date. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate adjourned last Saturday, failing to advance the Clarity Act, and data from prediction market Myriad shows the probability of the bill being signed into law within 2026 is only 20%. Notably, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will still hold the first meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee as scheduled on August 20, with agenda items covering "crypto regulatory evolution" and artificial intelligence, but this meeting will only produce recommendations and does not carry legislative authority.