News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders have raised the probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July to 70%, up from about 56% earlier this week. The current market probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 stands at 82%, while the probability of it falling below $60,000 is 13%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive trading day this week, fueling bets on higher prices. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained its target interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh has shifted the central bank's communication style to purely data-dependent.
According to Etoday, Korea Exchange data shows that from July 1 to 16, foreign investors cumulatively net sold approximately 12.44 trillion won worth of Korean stocks, with net sales of 12.10 trillion won in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) market and 338.1 billion won in the KOSDAQ market. Meanwhile, foreign capital net bought approximately 593.7 billion won worth of Korean ETFs against the trend.
Odaily "White Hair Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that due to the recent market downturn, his investment portfolio experienced a maximum drawdown of 49.4% this month. However, he still maintains his view on the long-term trend of the AI industry chain.Serenity revealed that his investment portfolio is mainly concentrated in key segments of the AI industry chain, including: semiconductor upstream, memory chips, photonics, humanoid robotics, and AI infrastructure-related companies. Because these areas typically have higher beta attributes, he previously used leveraged investments but has reduced the leverage level after the current round of market decline.Facing market skepticism towards AI-related assets, Serenity stated that recently a large number of investors have begun to believe: "AI is a bubble," "memory chips and the Korean KOSPI market are a bubble," "photonics is a bubble,""humanoid robots will not succeed," and "Neocloud (new AI cloud service providers) will eventually be replaced by hyperscale cloud vendors like Meta." Meanwhile, some retail investors and trading bots have even started advocating for "liquidating everything, the market will not recover."Serenity said he still believes these investment themes are supported by structural revenue growth and technological change. He experienced similar drawdowns in the past when global tariff risks impacted the market, and the market eventually rebounded. His investment horizon is long-term, allowing him to withstand higher volatility, and he will not change his long-term judgment based on short-term price fluctuations. Sharing this drawdown data is also to maintain transparency, allowing the market to see the real risks behind high-volatility growth investments.Serenity added: "If my prediction is that the revenue inflection point will come in the second half of 2027, and it is only 2026 now, then a decline of just a few weeks or months doesn't prove that the investment thesis has failed."
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in the latest report that although recent spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have fluctuated significantly, Strategy's increase of USD reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion (covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends), as well as Bitcoin futures (including CME futures and perpetual contracts) recording positive fund inflows this week, are both "positive signals" for Bitcoin's prospects. The analysts also noted that leveraged ETF inflows linked to Strategy have remained stable for seven consecutive weeks, mainly driven by retail investors, effectively supporting its stock price. Meanwhile, Strategy President and CEO Phong Le stated that the company is "very confident" in its balance sheet, will only consider debt risk if Bitcoin prices fall to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, and plans to continue issuing additional shares after the STRC preferred stock returns to a $100 par value, with the proceeds potentially used to purchase more Bitcoin.
JPMorgan analysts say Strategy’s recent increase in USD cash reserves, along with positive fund flows in the Bitcoin futures market, are “encouraging signs” for Bitcoin’s outlook, despite recent volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows.The report notes that flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been unstable in recent weeks, turning negative this week after inflows last week. In contrast, leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have seen relatively stable and positive flows over the past seven weeks. Analysts attribute this primarily to retail investor buying, which may have supported Strategy’s stock price and prevented its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.Meanwhile, Strategy recently increased its USD cash reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividend payments. JPMorgan had previously suggested that Strategy should raise its cash reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, in order to alleviate market concerns about the company potentially being forced to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends in the future.Analysts say it is still difficult to determine whether Strategy's move to bolster its cash reserves has directly improved Bitcoin investor sentiment. However, the fact that Bitcoin futures still recorded positive fund flows this week, against a backdrop of spot BTC ETF outflows, is also seen as an encouraging signal for the market outlook.
South Korea's stock market experienced a rapid rebound after a "Black Monday," but individual investors who had aggressively bought the dip in semiconductor leaders found themselves in a "buy the dip, sell the rebound" situation. According to data from the Korea Exchange, Korean retail investors collectively purchased approximately 3.89 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This included a net buy of 1.10 trillion won in Samsung Electronics and 2.79 trillion won in SK Hynix. On that day, the two companies' stocks plunged by 10.7% and 15.37%, respectively, with retail investors absorbing the shares sold by foreign and institutional investors. However, as semiconductor stocks rebounded, retail investors quickly turned into sellers. Over the two days of the 14th and 15th, individual investors sold a cumulative 1.45 trillion won in Samsung Electronics and 3.70 trillion won in SK Hynix, bringing the total net sell-off of the two stocks to 5.15 trillion won.Data shows that the estimated average purchase price for Samsung Electronics by retail investors on the 13th was around 261,700 won, while the average selling price over the following two days was about 259,400 won. For SK Hynix, the average purchase price was approximately 1,938,500 won, and the average selling price was around 1,849,300 won. Calculated based on the positions bought on the 13th, retail investors suffered a total loss of about 138.2 billion won. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics rose by approximately 9.8% cumulatively over the 14th and 15th, while SK Hynix gained about 12.8% over the same period. However, as a large portion of the dip-buying funds were sold off early in the rebound on the 14th, they failed to fully capitalize on the subsequent rally. (Etoday)
Affected by the mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran over the weekend, market risk-off sentiment intensified. Bitcoin has fallen more than 1% since 00:00 UTC on July 13, hovering around $63,000. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil once rose more than 3%, amid market concerns over shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential inflationary pressure.
: According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the hacker (0x18B...E66) who stole funds from a Coinbase user spent 7.378 million DAI early this morning to buy 4,049.7 ETH at a price of $1,822. Meanwhile, the address (0xa13...628) that received ETH from Tornado Cash last November had previously transferred out 4,978 ETH and exchanged them for 16.294 million DAI at a price of $3,273. Today, two hours ago, this address spent 4.34 million DAI to repurchase 2,405 ETH at a price of $1,804.
According to CCTV Finance, the US stock memory chip sector encountered a collective correction after hitting a high in late June, with industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital seeing stock price declines of over 20% in the past few weeks. The triggering factor was Meta selling computing power, which sparked market concerns about a surplus in computing power, while the core variable lies in whether the technical gaps between various AI large models will continue to narrow. Industry insiders point out that the memory chip industry has historically exhibited significant cyclicality—during booms, manufacturers collectively expand production leading to plummeting prices and industry-wide losses, followed by collective contraction in capital expenditure. Meanwhile, the industry's business model is undergoing profound changes, with cloud vendors and AI data centers increasingly signing 3-to-5-year long-term supply agreements with original manufacturers, including price ranges and minimum purchase volumes, to ensure the stability of key supply chains.
according to on-chain analyst Ember monitoring, 8 million LAB tokens were transferred to Aster and are suspected to have been sold on the spot market. At the time of transfer, the price was still $1.2, but dropped 26% to $0.89 several hours later. Meanwhile, after LAB entered Aster, the trading volume of LAB on Aster increased significantly.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), $LAB flash crashed from $17.68 to $1.05 within three days starting from July 6, a decline of 94%, with the coin price falling back to the level before the suspected market manipulation began two months ago. Meanwhile, suspected insider addresses remain active on-chain, having transferred 7.99 million LAB to three new addresses 3 hours ago; currently worth about $9.24 million, this batch of tokens was worth as high as $141 million three days ago, and the purpose of the transfer is currently unknown.
Odaily Odaily News: On-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X, stating that according to Doinb's revelation, LoL S4 World Champion Imp suddenly stopped streaming in March 2026 because he made profits from stock trading and no longer needed to stream. Imp previously mentioned during a livestream that "the money earned from streaming in a month is less than what I earn from stock trading in a day," and that "between March and October 2025, his assets increased tenfold, heavily investing in SK Hynix and buying NVIDIA."Additionally, the timing of Imp's streaming hiatus closely coincides with the rise of South Korean semiconductor stocks. However, Imp himself has not responded to the rumors of achieving financial freedom. Meanwhile, MLXG, who is also known for using his salary to trade stocks, heavily invested in baijiu (Chinese liquor) stocks, and his assets have nearly gone to zero.
Odaily reports, according to DefiLlama data, Binance saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion in the week starting June 29, a 207% increase from approximately $400 million the previous week. The total monthly net outflow stands at about $3.2 billion. CryptoQuant indicates that Binance's single-day ETH withdrawal transactions exceeded 166,000, marking the highest level in over three years. Over the same period, ETH rose approximately 12.5% in the past seven days, trading at $1,766 at press time; BTC gained 4.3% in the same period, trading at $62,925 at press time.DefiLlama data shows that Bitfinex recorded an outflow of $407.5 million over the past week, Gate saw $214.3 million in outflows, OKX had $87.1 million, and Bybit saw $78.4 million. Meanwhile, Crypto.com and HashKey Exchange posted net inflows of approximately $63 million and $53.3 million, respectively, while KuCoin, Gemini, and Bitvavo recorded net inflows of $22.1 million, $17.4 million, and $15.8 million. (Cointelegraph).
According to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring, amidst the ongoing correction in the crypto market, the total market capitalization of USD stablecoins has decreased by approximately $10 billion from its recent peak, currently maintaining a total scale of around $300 billion. Meanwhile, some funds are believed to have flowed into the US stock market, which has exhibited stronger wealth effects this year.The latest quarterly data reveals varying degrees of capital outflow among leading stablecoins:Tether (USDT): Total supply decreased from approximately $189.8 billion to $184.1 billion, a net outflow of about $5.7 billion.USD Coin (USDC): Total supply decreased from approximately $79.6 billion to $73 billion, a net outflow of about $6.6 billion, making it the stablecoin with the largest outflow in this round.Tokens associated with USDC issuer Circle are also under pressure, with its stock price declining from around $136 to near $64, indicating a cooling of market expectations for its growth.In contrast, the stablecoin USD1 recorded a net inflow of approximately $500 million during the same period, with its total supply growing from about $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion, becoming one of the few assets to increase against the trend. However, this growth is partly attributed to interest subsidy incentive mechanisms on trading platforms, such as activities on certain exchanges that guide user holdings and trading behavior.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), as the price of ANSEM continues to rise, its market cap has surpassed $350 million. Meanwhile, the ANSEM assets held by crypto KOL Ansem are currently valued at over $204 million.
: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that based on the capital flow direction in China's private VC market, institutions are currently pouring into fields related to Physical AI and World Models on a large scale.Data shows the approximate capital distribution as follows: Large Models/LLMs at about $23.56 billion, AI Infrastructure and Technology Layer at about $15.74 billion, Embodied Intelligence/Physical AI at about $13.36 billion, AIGC Applications at about $8.79 billion, and Autonomous Driving plus other top 20 sub-sectors totaling about $3.82 billion (note: metrics may not be directly comparable).Serenity pointed out that early-stage pure foundational model financing is largely closed, with capital more concentrated in existing leading companies and the World Model direction. He expects this trend to also appear in the US, potentially concentrating further towards leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Regarding AIGC applications, Serenity believes this track's commercialization is already relatively mature, but an absolute winner has yet to emerge, exhibiting a fragmented competitive landscape in both China and the US markets.Overall, Serenity concluded that current AI investments continue to flow into infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain. Meanwhile, capital is rapidly rotating towards Physical AI and Embodied Intelligence, but the World Model track still lacks direct investment targets.
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
: According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level. Currently, GEX is concentrated around the $60,000 mark. As prices repeatedly fluctuate around this key level, both call and put positions have accumulated at this point.However, put positions are currently distributed in the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with a vacuum zone below $55,000. If breached, there is significant room for a decline. Meanwhile, the area above $60,000 is where prices have repeatedly traded in recent months, with more evenly distributed positions. Overall, the downside risk is greater. Macro uncertainty, coupled with capital outflows from the United States, makes it difficult to support the cryptocurrency market. Currently, selling call options offers better value.
Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from 21-month lows hit earlier this week, showing signs of stabilization following a period of high volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, extending the trend of capital exodus. June alone saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, marking one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF led with a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase after an extended period of distribution, with buying pressure increasing from addresses holding 100–1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC that are in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that the Coinbase order book shows increased buying depth, and market makers' Gamma positioning is stabilizing, suggesting structural support is forming. However, the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing, reflecting heightened demand for hedging. Meanwhile, long leverage exposure on Hyperliquid has climbed to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.On the price structure front, Bitcoin briefly broke below $58,000 before repeatedly testing support. It currently remains below the critical Gamma Flip zone of around $68,000. The realized price of approximately $53,000 is viewed as a key structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, pushing back expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. The broader crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)