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Macro and geopolitical developments intensified this week, with Federal Reserve officials stating they have ample time to set policy, while explosions echoed in Middle Eastern waters and Saudi Aramco facilities were reportedly on fire. Domestically, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation against the EU, and OpenAI’s head of security resigned.
Odaily reports: According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, rising energy costs, higher real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macroeconomic environment more complex. Whether BTC can break out of its current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trajectory of real yields and energy prices.Bitcoin has recently remained within a range of approximately 5.5% for more than 24 consecutive trading days, with the cost basis of roughly 840,000 BTC located within this range. As profit-taking has slowed notably, the seller risk ratio has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels over the past year, though insufficient buying pressure continues to limit a breakout. Meanwhile, leverage is accumulating at both the upper and lower boundaries of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated near $82,000, while larger long positions exist in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, potentially amplifying price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
OpenAI's self-developed Jalapeno chip demonstrates outstanding test results, while Jack Ma continues to increase his Alibaba holdings by over HK$600 million over consecutive days. Federal Reserve officials signal concerns regarding interest rate hikes and U.S. debt risks, Canada plans to impose additional tariffs on the United States, and cooling tensions in the Middle East drive crude oil prices sharply lower.
In its published analysis, BIT notes that Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest rally since the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023. During that period, US authorities implemented emergency measures to stabilize the banking system, and the current market sentiment mirrors that era—the recent interventions by the US Treasury in the Japanese yen FX market and bond markets have heightened investor expectations for further macroeconomic policy support. Meanwhile, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets has sent increasingly favorable signals, further bolstering market sentiment. BIT's official Chinese-language analysis indicates that Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum, aligning closely with the scenarios discussed in research over the past several weeks.
Odaily News: Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Grayscale, stated that Bitcoin's structural adoption trend continues, the current bear market has entered a deeper stage, and the macro outlook is generally favorable. These three factors may provide a basis for long-term investors to enter, though prices could still decline.Grayscale noted that Bitcoin's adoption growth is primarily driven by government deficits, the expanding application of blockchain technology in the financial services sector, and generational shifts in investor asset allocation. The current bear market has lasted 10 months, approaching the average and median duration of 11 to 12 months observed across the previous four cyclical bear markets.Macro risks mainly depend on real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, and future rate hikes could push Bitcoin lower. Bitcoin briefly rose to $79,461 on August 21 before pulling back to around $77,000. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said that the recent appearance of multiple Fed officials casting dissenting votes on rate decisions has become more common over the past few years. Especially during periods when the economy faces multiple pressures and the policy path is unclear, strong disagreements among officials are likely, leading to more dissenting votes.Regarding the upcoming release of the Fed's meeting minutes, Duy believes the market's core focus will be on how widespread officials' concerns about inflation truly are. He noted that at the time, inflation was clearly running above the Fed's target, and policymakers worried that inflation would not quickly return to target levels. Meanwhile, the labor market was seen as having stabilized, which led some officials to strongly believe the Fed should raise rates to curb inflationary pressures. As a result, the market will closely watch how many Fed officials share this assessment, and whether concerns about inflation have formed a broader consensus within the decision-making ranks. The degree of divergence among officials over the policy path will also serve as an important clue for judging the future direction of interest rates.
According to QCP, the preliminary U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August dropped to 51.0, July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, and combined with previously weak employment data, market expectations for the Fed's short-term policy tightening have declined, with federal funds futures showing a probability of about 30% for a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will host a themed live stream today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ends, Oil Price Surges Past 75, STRATEGY Sells Coins at Loss for First Time: Can BTC's Macro Narrative Still Hold?" During the event, crypto KOLs such as HuaBai Blockchain, Sincere Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live stream room to conduct in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the fluctuating situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend in international oil prices, and combine Federal Reserve policy expectations to analyze BTC's future trend as well as crypto asset allocation opportunities and risk management strategies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.
Odaily Macro investor and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones stated in a recent podcast interview that Bitcoin is the "unequivocally the best inflation hedge" and called it a "knockout opportunity" in the market.Paul Tudor Jones pointed out that truly major trading opportunities often arise when market structures are imbalanced, assets are underallocated, or when policymakers misjudge the situation. He believes that due to its scarcity and decentralized characteristics, Bitcoin outperforms gold in inflation trades. He emphasized that Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with less than 1 million remaining to be mined, while gold's supply continues to increase annually. Therefore, Bitcoin holds a stronger advantage in the dimension of scarcity.Paul Tudor Jones recalled that in 2020, against the backdrop of Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion, Bitcoin became one of the most outstanding inflation-hedging assets at the time, and he subsequently increased its allocation to around 5% of his investment portfolio. However, he also warned of risks: in the event of large-scale "momentum conflicts" or cyber warfare-level incidents, the electronic asset system could face systemic disruption risks, and Bitcoin may also be impacted. Additionally, future cryptographic risks driven by quantum computing and AI could become a source of long-term uncertainty. (The Block)
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.