News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Cointelegraph, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out in the latest client report that the U.S. Treasury announced the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bond buybacks will be at least doubled from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion, with an execution period from September 9 to November 4. This policy drove long-term U.S. Treasury yields down significantly, effectively alleviating selling pressure in the bond market. Kendrick stated that such government liquidity interventions have historically been bullish for Bitcoin, and coupled with its fixed supply attribute, BTC is expected to hit $100,000 before the end of the year. Technically, he views $65,500 as a key support level; once effectively broken above, it can confirm that the bottom of this cycle has appeared.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a whale opened a 500,000 SOL long position worth $37.93 million at $76.368 on 08.10, using 20x leverage. Five minutes ago, the whale took profits on 246,000 SOL at $78.297, securing a gain of $475,000. The remaining position, valued at $20 million, still shows an unrealized profit of $486,000, bringing the total profit over 10 days to $960,000. The pending order has been canceled.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis indicating that Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $64,200, 1.30 times the long-term holder cost basis of $49,400, and has remained in the low-risk zone for 78 consecutive days. Long-term holder holdings amount to 16.35 million BTC, only 58,000 less than the all-time high of 16.41 million set on July 30; over the past 90 days, this group's supply increased by 1.38 million BTC.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the largest long address for $CXMT on Hyperliquid, 0x9a8...23cf2, is currently taking profits in batches via TWAP and limit orders, with nearly 100,000 tokens executed so far, realizing profits of approximately $230,000. The specific strategy is as follows: • TWAP Take Profit: Sold 20,000 tokens at the $8.7778 level • Limit Take Profit: Sell 16,614 tokens when the price rises to the $9.01～$9.11 range The address currently still holds a 5x long position of 1.53 million $CXMT tokens, valued at approximately $13.41 million, with an average entry price of $6.61, and cumulative unrealized profit of approximately $5.445 million after adding funding fee income.
Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that a long-term Bitcoin holder had all assets withdrawn from their account within less than 12 hours of transferring BTC to a major Australian exchange. According to a friend of the holder, hackers had compromised their Google account for approximately 3 months, obtaining their email and Google Authenticator credentials backed up to the cloud, and then waited for them to deposit BTC into the exchange. The exchange identified the hacker as the account owner and approved the withdrawal, with the holder receiving a withdrawal approval notification at 3 AM. The post recommends disabling cloud backup for Google Authenticator and using hardware security keys such as YubiKey; setting up two keys can serve as a backup in case one is lost.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a whale previously shorted Bitcoin on a scale of $114 million. After three stop-losses, the whale added another 330 BTC in the early morning, pushing long positions back above $110 million to 1,742 BTC. The average opening price has been updated to $63,709, with an unrealized profit of $292,000 and an additional $118,000 earned through funding fees.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the share of supply held by Short-Term Holders (STH) in the Bitcoin market is declining significantly, with the current distribution as follows: less than 1 day accounts for 1.2%, 1 day to 1 week accounts for 2%, 1 week to 1 month accounts for 5.6%, 1 month to 3 months accounts for 6.7%, and 3 months to 6 months accounts for 8.1%. He believes that this trend usually appears at the end of a bear market: on one hand, it indicates that the number of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is increasing, with fewer coins in active circulation in the market; on the other hand, it also indicates that new demand has not yet significantly returned.
Odaily News, According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an address (0xb37...a66ca) is currently going long on XYZ100 (Nasdaq 100 Index) through a TWAP strategy with 20x leverage. The cumulative amount is 1,006.8 XYZ100, with approximately $32 million worth of positions already filled, corresponding to 1,065 shares at an entry price of $29,778. The remaining portion is still being gradually executed.
Michael Burry's latest position adjustments show he has further increased short positions on multiple technology-related assets, including adding to short positions on Nebius (NBIS) at around $247, Micron (MU) at around $924, and Oracle (ORCL) at around $152, as well as increasing short positions on the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the KAITO price has continued to retreat after touching a phase high of $1.3764 on July 29, most recently falling to approximately $0.45, marking a cumulative decline of 67.3% over half a month. Additionally, two long position addresses opened on Hyperliquid on August 3 with a combined total of $6.94 million at 5x leverage have now been stopped out separately, resulting in a cumulative loss of about $2.874 million. The market is watching whether the previous drastic volatility surrounding KAITO is coming to an end.
Bitcoin analyst Plan B stated on the X platform that the core of Bitcoin's long-term value lies in scarcity, not short-term price fluctuations.Plan B believes that many people focus on Bitcoin's price charts, while the S2F model he uses focuses on the degree of asset scarcity. This model measures scarcity through "existing supply ÷ annual new production," where the S2F for gold is approximately 60. Due to Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million coins and its predictable issuance schedule, its S2F is currently around 120 and continues to rise over time.The Bitcoin halving mechanism is an important driver of the S2F model. Approximately every four years, the Bitcoin network reduces the block reward by half, decreasing new supply and roughly doubling the S2F level, making it the core supply-side event observed by the model.Plan B emphasized that the S2F and its upgraded version, the S2FX model, predict long-term average value rather than precisely forecasting market tops or bottoms. Bitcoin's price typically fluctuates around the model's estimated value, and investors should focus on multi-year cycle averages rather than single-day price highs. Additionally, Plan B believes that as scarcity increases, Bitcoin is undergoing different stages of development, including proof of concept, payment network, "digital gold"/store of value asset, and institutional-grade financial asset. Each increase in scarcity could bring new market narratives and capital inflows.However, Plan B also reiterated that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." He stated that the S2F model is merely a tool for long-term understanding of Bitcoin's scarcity, not a trading signal or a "crystal ball" for price prediction. Although the model has withstood major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and China's mining ban, it still has limitations.
According to monitoring by on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), the current high-leverage battle between Bitcoin longs and shorts continues to intensify. On the short side, 4 traders collectively shorted 3,895 BTC (approximately $249.4 million), with liquidation prices at $64,600.83, $66,281.28, $66,305.03, and $66,545.09 respectively; on the long side, 2 traders collectively went long 1,547 BTC (approximately $99.08 million), with liquidation prices at $61,200.15 and $61,831.74 respectively.
Odaily News, Citrini analyst Jukan stated on the X platform that the market may have to adopt a "short memory, long optical" trading strategy in the short term, with some hedge funds already positioning in this direction, primarily based on three reasons:First, after Korea's leveraged ETF market largely ceased to function, related investors are facing redemption pressure, which may lead to additional selling outflows. Adjustments in the capital chain of leveraged products could still put pressure on Korean memory stocks.Second, Nvidia is adjusting its next-generation AI system architecture. Nvidia may reduce the HBM configuration per cabinet for Rubin Ultra and connect multiple cabinets via optical interconnect technology, keeping Rubin Ultra cluster-level performance ahead. Even if the HBM reduction stems from supply constraints rather than declining demand, optical communications could still become a key beneficiary in AI infrastructure.Third, the market is forming a consensus that memory prices may peak within the next two quarters.However, the long-term outlook for the storage industry remains positive, though the short-term view is cautious. AI infrastructure investment is gradually shifting from a sole focus on HBM storage capacity to the overall efficiency of data center architecture, including high-speed optical interconnects and other components, which may drive funds to rotate from memory chips to optical communications in the short term.
According to Korean media NATE, driven by the AI investment boom, SK Hynix's stock price has recently experienced severe volatility. Against the backdrop of intensifying market volatility, SK Group released an advertisement quoting the famous words of founder Choi Jong-geon (최종건): "Despair and hope are two sides of the same coin; despair can be turned into hope like flipping a hand," and rewrote it as "Anxiety and expectation in the AI era are also two sides of the same coin; anxiety can be turned into expectation," thereby conveying confidence in the long-term development of the AI industry. Securities firms believe that short-term stock price volatility has not changed SK Hynix's fundamentals, and the market should focus on its HBM4 technology leadership advantage and the performance stability brought by Long-Term Agreements (LTA). Hyundai Motor Securities analyst Noh Geun-chang (노근창) stated that SK Hynix's DRAM and NAND bit growth rates for the third quarter are expected to reach 9.7% and 1.5% respectively; with the expansion of HBM4 sales contribution, even if the proportion of Long-Term Agreements increases, DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) is still expected to rise 19.9% quarter-over-quarter. Regarding competition concerns brought by China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Noh Geun-chang believes that considering the US continues to strengthen semiconductor equipment export restrictions and Micron is expanding domestic investment in the US, the possibility of major companies like Apple adopting Chinese memory chips is relatively low.
According to Bloomberg, as electricity demand from AI data centers continues to surge, US pipeline operators are competing to expand natural gas transmission capacity. Energy Transfer LP Co-CEO Thomas Long stated during Tuesday's analyst conference call that the company is actively advancing multiple pipeline projects to meet the incremental demand for gas-fired power generation and expects to announce more project details within the coming months. The rapid expansion of AI computing infrastructure is profoundly impacting the traditional energy industry, and natural gas pipelines, as a key support for stable power supply to data centers, are witnessing a new investment boom.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
Odaily News, July saw the U.S. manufacturing PMI rise to 55.6, the highest since 2022, with both production and employment recovering. However, strong demand and geopolitical inflation concerns have roiled the bond market, with Bank of America warning that the Federal Reserve is facing a credibility test. The hot manufacturing performance, coupled with geopolitical inflation threats, has sent U.S. Treasury markets into sharp turbulence. Long-dated Treasuries have recently faced heavy selling, with yields briefly surging to near two-decade highs.Mark Cabana, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Bank of America, commented on this, calling the bond market's violent swings a "textbook inflation credibility shock."Cabana noted that the core driver of the market turmoil is not the data itself, but the Fed's lack of policy communication. He specifically pointed to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's performance at a recent press conference, arguing that Warsh failed to clearly articulate how the Fed would achieve its 2% inflation target."Standing firm on the inflation target is one thing, but if you don't tell the market the specific path, investors won't buy it," Cabana said bluntly in a Bloomberg TV interview. "The bond market cannot be fooled; it sees through all appearances." (Jin10)
Odaily News Crypto analyst Murphy stated on X that on-chain data reveals a rare large-scale movement of coins by Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) recently. Over the past two days, more than 65,000 BTC have moved on-chain each day (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a notable decline in LTH net positions.Data shows that LTH net positions had begun to deviate from their previous continuous growth trend since May this year, entering a plateau in July, with the recent large-scale transfers being relatively uncommon over the past year. Among these, approximately 14,000 BTC flowed into exchanges. Some of the funds include a transaction where a company under Trump's umbrella transferred 2,628 BTC to Crypto.com.Currently, aside from the portion flowing into exchanges, the destination and purpose of the remaining coins reduced by long-term holders remain unclear. Murphy stated that potential risks currently affecting the BTC market include: 1) Shifts in Fed monetary policy and rising rate hike expectations; 2) Inflationary pressure from Middle East tensions and oil price changes; 3) Valuation concentration in the AI sector and financing risks behind high capital expenditures; 4) Re-crowding of yen carry trade positions.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, CXMT's current hourly funding rate has dropped to -0.2430%. A negative rate means shorts pay longs; calculated statically based on the current rate, the simple annualized yield is approximately 2129%.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the whale starting with 0xc278 has completed a total of 61 rounds of BRENTOIL trades since trading Brent Crude Oil on March 19, among which 59 rounds were long positions and only 2 rounds were short positions, with the long position ratio reaching 96.7%. All 61 rounds of trades resulted in a total net loss of approximately $2.431 million, with million-dollar-level heavy positions accounting for 99.4% of the losses.