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Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000: Fed Meeting Looms, Structural Concerns Over Strategy and Leverage Risks Converge

Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)

Analysis: If SpaceX is Included in Major Indices, Passive Funds May Be Forced to Assume High Volatility Asset Risk

as SpaceX is poised to be included in several major index systems, passive investors may be forced to hold the stock, thereby taking on significantly increased portfolio volatility risk. Multiple index providers (including CRSP, Nasdaq, FTSE Russell, and MSCI) have already adjusted their rules to accommodate SpaceX's inclusion in large-cap indices.Analysis points out that with SpaceX's current implied volatility approaching 120%—approximately three times that of Bitcoin-related ETFs (such as IBIT)—it will become one of the most volatile components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Industry insiders state that once large ETFs (such as the Vanguard Growth Index Fund) passively gain exposure to SpaceX, it will significantly elevate the overall volatility level of the indices, sparking debate over "passive investors being forced to assume high-risk assets."However, some believe that as it enters the index system, sustained passive fund inflows and market-making mechanisms could, in the medium to long term, reduce its extreme volatility and enhance liquidity stability. (CNBC)

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $10.04 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $10.04 million. Specifically, BlackRock’s $IBIT saw an inflow of $16.34 million, Fidelity’s $FBTC an inflow of $4.28 million, Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT an inflow of $1.88 million, and Grayscale’s mini-Bitcoin ETF $BTC an inflow of $4.35 million; meanwhile, Grayscale’s $GBTC experienced an outflow of $16.81 million.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $64.84 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $64.84 million yesterday. Grayscale’s GBTC alone saw a single-day outflow of $124 million, dragging down overall performance; BlackRock’s IBIT posted the strongest inflow at $66.45 million, followed by Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ($9.35 million) and Grayscale’s Mini BTC ($10.6 million); Fidelity’s FBTC recorded an outflow of $8.69 million, VanEck’s HODL $6.13 million, Ark Invest’s ARKB $6.63 million, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC $5.78 million.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Nearly $86 Million in Net Inflows in a Single Day

According to SoSo Value data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of nearly $86 million last Friday, equivalent to approximately 1,350 BTC, with BlackRock's IBIT alone seeing net inflows of nearly $58 million. Standard Chartered's Head of Global Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggested that the recent ETF sell-off may be partly driven by some holders liquidating positions to free up cash for participation in SpaceX's IPO. Since October last year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net outflows of $7.6 billion, including $3 billion in the first six months of 2026. Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with over 800,000 BTC in its treasury. Michael Saylor resumed Bitcoin purchases in early June, following sales by Strategy at the end of May.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $30.27 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $30.27 million, ending an 18-day streak of consecutive net outflows. All inflows came from BlackRock’s $IBIT; all other ETFs registered zero inflows that day.

贝莱德富达主导比特币 ETF 市场

贝莱德 IBIT 和富达 FBTC 两只基金占据美国现货比特币 ETF 大部分新资金流入,市场呈现双寡头格局。

BlackRock Submits Final S-1 Amendment, Bitcoin Yield-Enhanced ETF Awaits Approval

: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that BlackRock has submitted the fourth and possibly final S-1 amendment for its Bitcoin Yield-Enhanced ETF, the "iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA)," disclosing for the first time a management fee of 0.65%, significantly higher than the spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT (0.25%).

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.69 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.69 million yesterday, ending a 13-day streak of net outflows (totaling approximately $4.37 billion). BlackRock’s $IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $47.3 million, and Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT recorded an inflow of $9.87 million—making them the primary contributors. Meanwhile, ARK’s $ARKB experienced an outflow of $20.72 million, Bitwise’s $BITB an outflow of $15.57 million, and Invesco’s $BTCO an outflow of $12.65 million; all other products saw zero net fund flows.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $397 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $397 million yesterday, including $342 million out of BlackRock’s IBIT and $54.26 million out of Fidelity’s FBTC; all other products experienced no flows that day. This marks the 13th consecutive trading day of net outflows for Bitcoin spot ETFs, bringing the cumulative outflow to $4.37 billion.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $519 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $519 million, marking the 12th consecutive day of net outflows and bringing the cumulative outflow to approximately $3.97 billion (roughly 62,000 BTC). Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day outflow of $389 million; Grayscale’s GBTC recorded an outflow of $83.51 million; and Fidelity’s FBTC registered an outflow of $45.14 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was the only ETF with net inflows on the day, recording $14.77 million in inflows.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $90.14 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $90.14 million: BlackRock’s $ETHA saw an outflow of $44.27 million, Grayscale’s $ETH (mini) an outflow of $25.41 million, and Fidelity’s $FETH an outflow of $15.63 million; all other products experienced no fund flows. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT recorded a net outflow of 6,164 BTC (approximately $440 million) on the same day—its 11th consecutive day of net outflows—with a single-day trading volume reaching $2.2 billion.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $483.76 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $483.76 million yesterday—the largest single-day outflow in recent days. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $440.29 million of this outflow, representing over 90% of the total; Fidelity’s FBTC saw an outflow of $37.29 million; Ark’s ARKB recorded an outflow of $12.32 million; only Morgan Stanley’s MSBT posted a net inflow of $6.14 million, while all other funds reported zero net flow that day.

Analysis: Demand for crypto ETF exposure diverges, BTC sentiment cools notably, HYPE sees inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net capital outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.84 billion. This marks the longest consecutive losing streak since the product's launch in 2024, surpassing the previous record set on February 8, 2025. BlackRock's IBIT was the primary source of these outflows.Analysts indicate that this round of capital outflows reflects a notable cooling in institutional demand for Bitcoin ETF exposure. Meanwhile, the market is showing signs of divergence: Hyperliquid-related ETFs and certain XRP spot ETFs continue to record capital inflows. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs have also faced capital outflows for 13 consecutive days, with cumulative outflows reaching approximately $694 million. This suggests that capital within crypto asset ETFs is undergoing a reallocation. (Cointelegraph)

Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin's Volatility Structure Gradually Converging with Gold, Asset Characteristics May Be Shifting

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin's volatility and correlation are increasingly approaching the level of gold. This trend has been significantly underestimated during the current market adjustment and may be a positive signal amid recent market turbulence. Based on the 60-day historical volatility comparison data of IBIT and the gold ETF (GLD) since their launch, Bitcoin's volatility structure is gradually converging with gold, indicating that its asset characteristics may be changing.Eric Balchunas added that despite the volatile market environment, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) has continued to outperform U.S. stocks since the escalation of the Iran conflict and has achieved more than double the excess returns compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since the approval of BlackRock's ETFs.

HYPE Spot ETF’s Market Cap Absorption Share in First 10 Trading Days Exceeds That of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

According to Kairos Research data, Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) spot ETF absorbed 1.04% of its market capitalization within the first 10 trading days after launch—outperforming the debut performance of spot ETFs for Bitcoin (0.59%), Ethereum (0.41%), and Solana (0.31%) when measured by market-cap-adjusted demand. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that 21Shares’ HYPE ETF (THYP) has surged 50% since its launch two weeks ago—growing faster than BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT.

Analyst: $1.3 Billion IBIT Block Trade Could Trigger Bitcoin Flash Crash

Odaily An unknown trader sold approximately $1.3 billion worth of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) on a dark pool on Tuesday, sparking market attention.Data shows the trader sold 29.2 million shares of IBIT at $43.16 per share around 14:30 UTC. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $77,875 to $76,720 within 10 minutes, a decline of about 1.5%, before further dipping to around $75,600.Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, stated this is the largest IBIT dark pool trade he has ever seen. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the trade size was 22 times larger than the second-largest IBIT sell order of the day.Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for eight consecutive trading days. On Tuesday alone, net outflows totaled approximately $333.6 million, with IBIT seeing outflows of about $192.4 million. Since May 14, cumulative net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $2 billion. Reports indicate that Jane Street reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by about 70% in the first quarter, while Goldman Sachs also trimmed its positions by approximately 10%. (Cointelegraph)

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $100.81 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $100.81 million. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for an outflow of $103.64 million—the largest outflow among all ETFs that day. Ark’s ARKB saw a net inflow of $2.83 million. Fidelity’s FBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, VanEck’s HODL, WisdomTree’s BTCW, Grayscale’s GBTC, and Grayscale’s Mini BTC all registered zero net flows for the day.

Harvard's crypto holdings lose over $150 million in one year, chasing BTC at highs before dumping ETH

according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, Harvard Management Company first established a cryptocurrency position during the market rally in Q2 2025; in Q3, when BTC prices were near all-time highs, it significantly increased its holdings, boosting the number of shares by 257%, with IBIT once accounting for 20% of its portfolio, making it the largest public holding. In Q4, as the market declined, it reduced its BTC holdings while establishing an ETH position, only to clear all ETH after holding for just one quarter and exiting at a loss. Its BTC cost basis ranged from $107,000 to $114,000, while the ETH cost basis was $4,000. Over the year, it incurred losses exceeding $150 million in the crypto space.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $331 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $331 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT remaining the primary contributor—accounting for $326 million in outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC and Valkyrie’s BRRR saw outflows of $1.67 million and $3.79 million, respectively, while all other products experienced no fund movement.