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Odaily News The rebound in the S&P 500 index is not driven by improving fundamentals, but rather by hedging position additions? Experts warn that as the "options dividend" fades and technical indicators become overbought, the market may once again face the test of fundamentals. Recently, the S&P 500 index has staged a remarkable rebound, rising about 6% in just five trading days since the Federal Reserve's July 29 policy meeting. However, for astute investors, the underlying driver of this rally is not a turn for the better in macroeconomic fundamentals, but a "mechanical" advance fueled by options positioning adjustments.Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, pointed out that this rally has been primarily driven by a combination of market makers' Gamma position shifts, a rapid decline in implied volatility (VIX), and a surge in call options.Heading into the Fed's late-July decision and key earnings reports, options market makers were generally in a "negative Gamma" exposure state. In this environment, the market is highly prone to amplified volatility: when prices rise, market makers must buy more positions to hedge their risk, and this "pro-cyclical hedging" behavior inadvertently acts as an accelerator for market gains.As the index has climbed higher, the market has now returned to a "positive Gamma" zone. This means the hedging logic for market makers has reversed—they have begun to adopt a "contrarian approach," reducing positions as the market rises. While this force helps dampen volatility, it also signals that the strong upward tailwind from earlier is now fading.
据 QCP Group 发布的市场报告，当前市场整体处于风险规避状态。受美伊紧张局势升级影响，布伦特原油突破每桶 85 美元，创一个月新高，周涨幅超 10%；美股半导体板块领跌，市场担忧超大规模云厂商或削减 AI 基础设施支出，资金转向防御性板块与能源板块。 加密市场方面，BTC 持续在 63,000 至 65,000 美元区间内窄幅整理，现报 64,100 美元附近，7 月 17 日曾短暂跌至 62,924 美元低点；ETH 表现持续弱于 BTC，现报 1,832 美元，此前短暂突破 1,900 美元后回落，关键阻力位在 1,847 美元，多头需收复 200 日均线（约 2,400 美元）方可改善整体结构。 资金面出现积极信号，美国现货比特币 ETF 连续四日录得净流入，扭转此前创纪录的 80 亿美元净流出趋势。期权市场方面，已实现波动率持续压缩，前端期权定价相对低廉，做市商在 7 月 28 至 29 日 FOMC 会议前处于 Gamma 空头状态，若霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势缓和，上行加速风险不容忽视。
Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from 21-month lows hit earlier this week, showing signs of stabilization following a period of high volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, extending the trend of capital exodus. June alone saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, marking one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF led with a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase after an extended period of distribution, with buying pressure increasing from addresses holding 100–1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC that are in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that the Coinbase order book shows increased buying depth, and market makers' Gamma positioning is stabilizing, suggesting structural support is forming. However, the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing, reflecting heightened demand for hedging. Meanwhile, long leverage exposure on Hyperliquid has climbed to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.On the price structure front, Bitcoin briefly broke below $58,000 before repeatedly testing support. It currently remains below the critical Gamma Flip zone of around $68,000. The realized price of approximately $53,000 is viewed as a key structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, pushing back expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. The broader crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)
According to GreeksLive, today 21,000 BTC options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.66, maximum pain at $78,500, and notional value of $1.6 billion; 129,000 ETH options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.92, maximum pain at $2,200, and notional value of $280 million. This week, BTC concluded a one-and-a-half-month rally amid muted market conditions; expiring BTC and ETH options each account for only ~5% of total open interest. BTC’s maximum pain level lies close to the current spot price, implying relatively strong gamma/pin risk; ETH’s expiry volume is half that of last week, and its current spot price sits below maximum pain—short-term implied volatility (IV) is highly likely to decline post-expiry. IV across all major maturities declined broadly: BTC IV fell below 35%, ETH IV fell below 50%, and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) rose slightly. On the large-trade front, whales concentrated positions in bearish put spreads (5,000-lot 75K/71K puts expiring end-May), totaling nearly $200 million in notional value. Overall, volatility expectations remain low, and market activity falls short of expectations.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.