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According to TechFlow Research, a Nomura Securities report on August 12 noted that Lumentum's revenue for the June quarter increased 109% year-over-year to $1.01 billion, with component revenue growing 103% to $649 million. Narrow linewidth laser shipments grew by over 130%, pump lasers increased 80% and are expected to grow another fourfold in the coming quarters; the company holds a 70% to 80% market share in the pump laser sector. 200G EML accounts for over 25% and is expected to exceed 50% by mid-2027. OCS shipments doubled, with management guiding for triple-digit year-over-year growth in 1QFY27, progressing towards a $400 million OCS revenue target in 2H26. The supply-demand imbalance for EML and CW lasers will not ease at least from FY26 to FY27. The report judges that the technology upgrade path is clear; NPO is expected to be commercialized between late 2027 and 2028, significantly expanding the optical TAM. The global shortage of optical chips creates structural opportunities for Chinese manufacturers: Yuanjie Semiconductor is expected to gain global market share in optical chips, with Nomura giving a Neutral rating and a target price of 1,375 yuan (based on 21x 2027 expected EPS); Zhongji Innolight and Tfc Communication both receive Buy ratings, benefiting from the 800G to 1.6T upgrade, increased silicon photonics penetration, and NPO incremental opportunities.
Odaily News: Paradis Labs stated on the X platform that the key takeaways from Lumentum's earnings call are as follows. 1. EML. Lumentum reported strong EML performance this quarter, driven primarily by 100G-per-channel products. Growth for 200G-per-channel products is "accelerating rapidly," now accounting for over 25% of total EML revenue. Lumentum still expects EML shipments in December 2026 to grow by more than 50% compared to December 2025, even as it shifts some production capacity to CW lasers during this period. Lumentum has added sales of CW laser chips for 200G-per-channel applications to "numerous customers," moving beyond internal use only. The company is expanding two indium phosphide wafer fabs in Japan and is validating production processes for 200G and 300G-per-channel CW lasers and EMLs on its latest equipment. Coherent will report earnings tomorrow, with its business also involving 200G-per-channel EMLs and 400-milliwatt CW lasers. The market is watching whether its 6-inch indium phosphide wafers can deliver a cost advantage, and whether Lumentum will need to respond by improving yields. 2. CPO and NPO. Lumentum stated that the leading CPO customer's production plans "remain on track," with customer demand signals stronger than at the time of the last update. The company now expects laser shipments to begin ramping in the second half of next year, earlier than the customer's large-scale deployment scheduled for 2028. Lumentum has received its first order for ELS modules, with delivery scheduled for the second half of 2027. Other customers are primarily prioritizing NPO as an interim solution. The company said NPO will "bring fully incremental business and significantly expand the total addressable optical market," with even its largest CPO customer evaluating NPO for certain new application scenarios. AAOI expects to ramp ELSFP capacity to approximately 400,000 units per month by 2028. Sivers Semiconductors' external indium phosphide light sources are gradually being adopted for CPO and NPO applications. Lumentum, as the largest commercial laser manufacturer, has already procured products related to the ELS architecture, indicating the architecture has gained validation through real orders. 3. Cloud transceivers and 1.6T. Lumentum's 800G business set a record and began volume shipments of 1.6T products as planned. The company said its visibility into future cloud transceiver demand is "clearer than ever before." The 1.6T business will continue to strengthen from the first fiscal quarter through 2027, driven primarily by hyperscalers' custom AI clusters accelerating the transition from 800G to 1.6T. Lumentum stated that in many cases, it achieved product launch earlier than its larger competitors, and it expects this market share advantage to persist throughout the cycle. Transceiver business profitability is improving, driven by better yields, higher capacity utilization, and an increasing mix of 1.6T products. Lumentum
Odaily News, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston has issued a warning that the indium phosphide (InP) laser supply chain for AI data centers is facing a more severe supply gap than memory chips. Even with Lumentum's five InP wafer fabs, product shipments could still fall more than 30% short of customer demand, indicating that AI infrastructure expansion is encountering a critical bottleneck in key optical communication components.Serenity pointed out that current supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) segment, but the InP laser shortage could continue to spread. He remains bullish on the "bottleneck investment" opportunities in the optical communication laser supply chain, keeping an eye on companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), Lumentum (LITE), and Coherent (COHR). As AI data center capital expenditures continue to rise, optical modules, lasers, and other infrastructure segments that were previously undervalued by the market are now undergoing repricing, and the InP laser supply bottleneck could become a key limiting factor in the expansion of AI computing power.
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity stated on X platform that he believes the "photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure field.Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked Lumentum's (LITE) market cap growth from about $30 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, with the core reason being the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in the optical network architecture.He believes the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of a new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous-wave lasers and optical components.Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to surge from nearly zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again replicate the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply crunch. He is currently focusing on related assets in the continuous-wave laser supply chain, such as SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.