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Odaily News: Bitcoin's volatility has recently neared zero, but market risks have not been resolved. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not seen any outflows in the first week of August, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin's price remains around $64,700, while the options market is heavily focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs has picked up again; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning in advance for a potential pullback, especially ahead of the latest U.S. employment data release.However, looking at the overall positioning structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, with recent trading more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. Deribit's DVOL index, which reflects Bitcoin's expected volatility over the next 30 days, is currently around 35—a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year—suggesting that the market sees limited potential for major swings in the short term.That said, U.S. macroeconomic data could break this balance. The market expects U.S. non-farm payrolls for July to increase by approximately 97,500, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. If the employment data comes in stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could push yields down, but also heighten concerns about slowing economic growth.Currently, the Bitcoin market presents a pattern of "ETF inflows underpinning spot prices while the options market hedges against downside." Potential risks remain a concern in a low-volatility environment. With low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could trigger sharp swings in asset prices. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News, Greeks.live Research Institute Adam posted on the X platform that recently, the IV for selling options has been relatively low and option premiums have thinned out, prompting him to explore other types of trading. He mentioned that he has always done some US stock trading, previously primarily through Chinese-language brokers, but following the tax audit风波, it has become less convenient to use them. After last month's announcement by Coinbase and Deribit, he has moved his US stock trading to Coinbase, aiming to have his margin used for both US stock and options trading after the future merger. He also expressed anticipation for the post-merger user experience, noting that spot liquidity is decent, and Advanced Trading offers products such as spot and perpetual contracts, providing a more unified trading experience without the need to switch between multiple platforms. He added that anyone trying out Coinbase's international exchange INTX ahead of time can reach out to him privately if they encounter issues.
Odaily News, Greeks.live Research Institute's Adam posted on the X platform, stating that Deribit's adjusted fee schedule has taken effect this month, and institutionalization is expected to become more pronounced moving forward. Overall fee rates have decreased, particularly the cap for deep out-of-the-money options for large traders, which has dropped significantly. Liquidity for deep out-of-the-money options is expected to improve, and activity in daily options is likely to increase. Spot trading will now incur transaction fees in the future, and the rates are not low.
Coinbase released a monthly review on July 1, stating that in the first half of the year, it advanced its product layout around the strategy of "every asset, every market, one platform," covering tokenized stocks, pre-IPO perpetual contracts, stock options, crypto options, stock index perpetual futures, AI tools, payments, stablecoins, and on-chain infrastructure. Coinbase stated that the tokenized stocks are 1:1 backed shares of US companies, expected to include dividends, on-chain trading, holding, and redemption functions, and are not available to US persons. Coinbase also noted that its pre-IPO perpetual contracts will start with SpaceX and then expand to OpenAI and Anthropic, and will offer crypto options through integration with Deribit. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on July 3 that Coinbase is one of the companies with the highest level of AI application globally. Coinbase also stated that it has launched a direct INR on-ramp in India, become the official deployer of the USDC treasury wallet for Hyperliquid, partnered with Ethena across over $50 billion in assets, and mentioned transferring approximately $4.4 billion USDC to the Hyperliquid deployer. (Bitcoin.com News).
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $57,700, its lowest level since September 2024, before recovering to $58,800; the market saw $395 million in liquidations, with open interest rising to 768,000 BTC. On Deribit, put options across all maturities traded at a premium over call options, with one block trade betting on a Bitcoin put option expiring in September with a strike price of $50,000. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin further declined toward $62,000 on Tuesday, continuing its weakvolatility amid a sixth consecutive week of spot ETF outflows, a hawkish shift in macro interest rate expectations, and pressure from quarter-end options expiration. Ethereum fell below $1,700 on the same day, with both BTC and ETH retreating nearly 20% over the past 30 days.This week's market pressure primarily stems from two key factors. First, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% during the June 18 FOMC meeting, but the statement noticeably reduced dovish language, and the dot plot shifted from previously hinting at rate cuts to suggesting rate hikes. Among the 18 officials, 9 now expect at least one rate hike this year, and the probability of a December rate hike has significantly increased compared to a month ago.Second, geopolitical risks have once again disrupted the market. The previous expectation of a US-Iran ceasefire had pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but the situation broke down during the signing ceremony on June 19, with Iran withdrawing from negotiations. Due to the crypto market's 24/7 trading, Bitcoin was the first to reflect this shock.Additionally, Deribit is set to see approximately $10.6 billion in options expire on June 26, further intensifying the quarter-end market观望 sentiment. Analysts believe that current leverage has been largely cleared, and market positioning is defensive. However, the next directional move still depends on Thursday's PCE inflation data and whether spot ETF fund flows can turn positive again.
Benchmark has maintained a "Buy" rating for Coinbase with a $270 price target, implying approximately 59.5% upside from its Tuesday closing price of $169.27. The firm noted that Coinbase's latest "System Update" indicates it is accelerating its transformation from a crypto trading platform into an "everything exchange" that bridges traditional finance and the on-chain economy.Analyst Mark Palmer stated that this product update covers tokenized stocks, stock and crypto options, pre-IPO perpetual contracts, prediction markets, AI-driven investment tools, agent payment infrastructure, and retail financial products, signaling the continuous expansion of its business boundaries.Key progress highlighted by Benchmark also includes: the U.S. CFTC's approval for it to operate as a regulated Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), global derivatives capabilities obtained through the acquisition of Deribit, and integrating crypto perpetuals and options into a compliant framework, thereby achieving cross-market liquidity consolidation.Furthermore, the company's strategic moves in the Base ecosystem, prediction markets, and AI agent payments are also seen as key signals of its evolution from "spot crypto trading" to a comprehensive on-chain financial infrastructure. (The Block)
Bitcoin's price is approaching the key support level of $60,000, and a breach below could trigger accelerated selling.Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, stated that $60,000 is more than just a psychological round number; it is a structural threshold with tangible implications for institutional investors and the derivatives market. Over the past year, a significant amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, purchased BTC at prices between $60,000 and $67,000. As the price approaches these buy zones, investors are near their breakeven point. If the price falls below their cost basis, unrealized losses will increase. This pressure is amplified when traditional markets, such as AI stocks, are rising, raising the opportunity cost of holding BTC and potentially prompting investors to accelerate their selling.The derivatives market is also under strain. Deribit data shows that approximately $1.2 billion in notional value of $60,000 put options remain open. Market makers hedging this risk may be forced to sell spot or futures contracts, thereby accelerating the decline. Simultaneously, there is still a large amount of leveraged long positions in the system. A break below $60,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, intensifying market sell pressure. Péquignot believes that billions of dollars in leveraged long positions have already been liquidated this week. If the $60,000 support level fails, the downward momentum could amplify further, leading to a rapid and chaotic sell-off scenario. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale/institutional address purchased 32,007 ETH from Binance within the past 24 hours, valued at approximately $77.49 million, and may continue accumulating. Previously, this address received a total of $225.1 million in USDC from BitGo and transferred funds separately to Deribit, Bybit, and Binance.
Odaily News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale or institution purchased 32,007 ETH from Binance, valued at approximately $77.49 million.On-chain data shows that this address has transferred around $225.12 million USDC to Deribit, Bybit, and Binance within the past 24 hours. The funds originated from BitGo and are likely intended for further accumulation of ETH.
According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is undergoing a notable shift: the $80,000 call option on Deribit has become the most actively traded, with open interest exceeding $1.6 billion—surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put option (which held approximately $1.41 billion in open interest). Analysts suggest that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has driven oil prices lower, easing inflation expectations and potentially strengthening market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts—thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin. Additionally, asset management firm 21Shares stated that, against the backdrop of sustained ETF inflows and rising institutional holdings, Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 by the end of Q2—if geopolitical tensions ease further and the regulatory environment improves. However, risks remain: the current ceasefire is fragile, and any escalation in Middle Eastern conflict could trigger a rebound in oil prices, dampening market risk appetite and thereby capping Bitcoin’s upside potential.