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Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
Bitget Launches Delta-Neutral Mode, Offering ADL Protection for Hedging and Arbitrage Strategies
Bitget has announced the launch of Delta-Neutral Mode in its Unified Account. When an account meets predefined delta-neutral conditions, this feature applies a differentiated Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) ranking mechanism to eligible hedged positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of forced liquidation for properly hedged strategies during extreme market conditions. Delta-Neutral Mode enables users to combine spot, cross-margin leveraged trading, and cross-margin perpetual contracts within the Unified Account framework. The system simultaneously assesses directional exposure at both the account and asset levels. This feature supports funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 9 Consecutive Days, Total Inflows Reaching Approximately $2.1 Billion
according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.
Citrini Comments on "AI Stock God Seeking New Funding Support": The Fund's Founding LPs Still Have a 130% Return Rate, Will Likely Buy the Dip, the Fund Will Secure Sufficient Capital and Unwind Hedges to Avoid Liquidation
: In response to recent reports that "AI stock god Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund is seeking new capital support," well-known investment research firm Citrini officially commented on X platform: "If you are an LP of Situational Awareness, you invested in the fund based on information from its offering memo, such as 'AI is the only thing that matters, and if you recognize this and wish to invest in a vehicle that expresses this view by going all-in long on the most leveraged expression of our most optimistic AI thesis in the stock market, then you invest.' Not just because you're bullish on AI, but because you believe Leopold is one of the few 'hundreds' / knows these 'hundreds' who will bring about the machine god by 2030. And then, over the next two years, this fund did exactly what it promised. And it went up. Probably over 20x, if I recall correctly.Again, in this scenario, you are the person who read 'Situational Awareness' (that paper) and said: 'Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than nuclear bombs and will turn the world upside down before the end of this decade. And I want to put my investment into the hedge fund version of that thesis.' Now those stocks have fallen, so the fund's assets have also fallen.Let me ask you—do these LPs look like the type of people who would turn bearish on AI just because SK Hynix dropped 50% in six weeks? The kind who likely view the level of tech optimism akin to 'I'm going long TQQQ' as normal people treat municipal bond fund investments?Yeah... I wouldn't expect many of them to be calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don't realize how insane a 2200% gain since inception (2024) really is. To put it in perspective, if you invested $100 million when SALP launched and lost ninety percent (of those gains) in July, your investment would still be worth $230 million today.I think LPs are very likely to buy the dip. Situational Awareness will get the money they're asking for. And once the capital is in, they will unwind their (likely short-term) hedges because they won't face the risk of being liquidated by their prime broker. This means the market makers who sold them those hedges will have to delta-hedge their unwind on what could be a fairly significant notional exposure. At the same time, they will deploy these funds into what they see as 'the best buying opportunity since April 2025.' I don't think Leopold is in trouble; rather, it's more likely he can raise the capital he needs, meaning it's more probable Leopold triggers a market bottom than drives AI stocks lower.If there's something I'm missing that would cause this group of AI super-believers—who are likely still significantly profitable on their SALP investment—to decide they'd rather not buy the dip, then yeah, any stock that even smells of AI might head straight to hell. But... (that's not the reality).”
Bitget Launches Delta-Neutral Mode, Offering ADL Protection for Hedging and Arbitrage Strategies
Bitget has announced the launch of Delta-Neutral Mode in its Unified Account. When an account meets predefined delta-neutral conditions, this feature applies a differentiated Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) ranking mechanism to eligible hedged positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of forced liquidation for properly hedged strategies during extreme market conditions. Delta-Neutral Mode enables users to combine spot, cross-margin leveraged trading, and cross-margin perpetual contracts within the Unified Account framework. The system simultaneously assesses directional exposure at both the account and asset levels. This feature supports funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies.
Related news
Bitcoin Options Market Sentiment Improves: Bullish Positions Dominate, but Long-Term Hedging Demand Remains
Odaily News Glassnode posted on X that the Bitcoin options market has recently released a moderately positive signal, with data showing that market volatility expectations are recovering, short-term panic is easing, and bullish options positions continue to dominate.Data shows that BTC options implied volatility (IV) is currently about 10% higher than realized volatility (RV), ending the previous weeks-long period where realized volatility consistently exceeded implied volatility. This indicates that the market has begun to pay a premium for future uncertainty again. However, current volatility levels have not yet reached an extreme tension state.In terms of options skew, hedging demand for short-term options has clearly declined, with the 1-week 25-delta skew dropping to approximately 7%. However, skew for longer-dated options remains in the 10%-12% range, suggesting investors are still protecting against medium-to-long-term downside risks.Regarding positioning, Bitcoin options open interest remains distinctly skewed toward call options. Currently, the open interest value of call options stands at approximately $15 billion, higher than put options at roughly $10 billion. After adjusting for recent expirations, bullish positioning still maintains an advantage.In terms of capital flows, options trading is mainly concentrated in the $61,000 to $67,000 range, with buying of $65,000 call options being relatively active, accompanied by put option selling, indicating that short-term market trading sentiment is improving.The analysis says the current BTC options market reflects a pattern of "cautious optimism": short-term panic is receding, bullish allocation still dominates, but long-term hedging demand persists, and investors have not fully abandoned risk protection.
QCP：当前市场呈现"韧性而非动能"，利空已被消化
据 QCP Capital 8 月 7 日市场报告，BTC 本周从约 62,500 美元低点回升至 64,000 美元附近。尽管期间承压明显——Strategy 上周出售 1,638 枚 BTC（约 1.047 亿美元），Coldcard 安全事件波及约 5,000 个钱包、估计损失约 1,755 枚 BTC（约 1.1 亿美元）——市场并未出现持续性下跌。 期权市场同样未见恐慌情绪，7 日和 30 日平值隐含波动率分别为 28.8 和 32.6，处于近期区间低端；7 日 25-delta 风险逆转从 -7.39 快速收窄至 -2.10，显示短端下行偏斜明显缓解。 宏观层面，美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 升至 55.6（逾四年新高），但就业数据走软，ADP 私人就业仅新增 4.4 万人，市场等待当日晚些时候公布的非农数据（华尔街日报预期新增约 8.3 万人）。此外，霍尔木兹海峡局势仍未完全解除，布伦特原油重返 83 美元上方；日元干预及日本国债收益率走势持续牵动全球流动性预期。
Citrini Comments on "AI Stock God Seeking New Funding Support": The Fund's Founding LPs Still Have a 130% Return Rate, Will Likely Buy the Dip, the Fund Will Secure Sufficient Capital and Unwind Hedges to Avoid Liquidation
: In response to recent reports that "AI stock god Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund is seeking new capital support," well-known investment research firm Citrini officially commented on X platform: "If you are an LP of Situational Awareness, you invested in the fund based on information from its offering memo, such as 'AI is the only thing that matters, and if you recognize this and wish to invest in a vehicle that expresses this view by going all-in long on the most leveraged expression of our most optimistic AI thesis in the stock market, then you invest.' Not just because you're bullish on AI, but because you believe Leopold is one of the few 'hundreds' / knows these 'hundreds' who will bring about the machine god by 2030. And then, over the next two years, this fund did exactly what it promised. And it went up. Probably over 20x, if I recall correctly.Again, in this scenario, you are the person who read 'Situational Awareness' (that paper) and said: 'Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than nuclear bombs and will turn the world upside down before the end of this decade. And I want to put my investment into the hedge fund version of that thesis.' Now those stocks have fallen, so the fund's assets have also fallen.Let me ask you—do these LPs look like the type of people who would turn bearish on AI just because SK Hynix dropped 50% in six weeks? The kind who likely view the level of tech optimism akin to 'I'm going long TQQQ' as normal people treat municipal bond fund investments?Yeah... I wouldn't expect many of them to be calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don't realize how insane a 2200% gain since inception (2024) really is. To put it in perspective, if you invested $100 million when SALP launched and lost ninety percent (of those gains) in July, your investment would still be worth $230 million today.I think LPs are very likely to buy the dip. Situational Awareness will get the money they're asking for. And once the capital is in, they will unwind their (likely short-term) hedges because they won't face the risk of being liquidated by their prime broker. This means the market makers who sold them those hedges will have to delta-hedge their unwind on what could be a fairly significant notional exposure. At the same time, they will deploy these funds into what they see as 'the best buying opportunity since April 2025.' I don't think Leopold is in trouble; rather, it's more likely he can raise the capital he needs, meaning it's more probable Leopold triggers a market bottom than drives AI stocks lower.If there's something I'm missing that would cause this group of AI super-believers—who are likely still significantly profitable on their SALP investment—to decide they'd rather not buy the dip, then yeah, any stock that even smells of AI might head straight to hell. But... (that's not the reality).”
Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
Bitget Launches Delta-Neutral Mode, Offering ADL Protection for Hedging and Arbitrage Strategies
Bitget has announced the launch of Delta-Neutral Mode in its Unified Account. When an account meets predefined delta-neutral conditions, this feature applies a differentiated Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) ranking mechanism to eligible hedged positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of forced liquidation for properly hedged strategies during extreme market conditions. Delta-Neutral Mode enables users to combine spot, cross-margin leveraged trading, and cross-margin perpetual contracts within the Unified Account framework. The system simultaneously assesses directional exposure at both the account and asset levels. This feature supports funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Market Volatility Returns, Options Volatility and Market Sentiment Recover in Tandem
Glassnode analysis indicates Bitcoin has broken through key resistance and rallied to the $82,000-$83,000 range, ending several weeks of narrow consolidation, with market volatility making a return. Options data shows a rebound of approximately 6 points in short-term 1-week implied volatility, while long-term volatility remains moderate, signaling a rapid recovery in short-term trading demand.In terms of sentiment and positioning, the 25-delta skew has converged toward neutral, indicating diminished demand for downside hedging. Short-term sentiment is leaning bearish, while long-term outlook has turned bullish, reflecting a repricing of upward expectations. On the structural side, implied volatility has surpassed realized volatility, with the VRP turning positive. A "short gamma" concentration zone of approximately $2 billion exists near the $82,000 level, which could amplify price swings. Over the past 24 hours, call option sell orders accounted for 81% of activity, suggesting the market is leaning toward consolidation.