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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to limited liquidity inflows into the crypto market, the stablecoin market cap remains sluggish in its recovery. Since May this year, the stablecoin market cap has contracted by $14 billion, signaling notable capital outflows from the market. Although conditions have shown slight improvement since September, with the stablecoin market cap rising by roughly $4 billion and reclaiming around $270 billion, and signs of a trend reversal appearing to materialize, the overall rebound remains relatively weak. Further driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs will require substantially greater liquidity support from the market.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin's realized cap (Realized Cap) grew by 1.2% (approximately $12.8 billion), reaching $1.079 trillion on October 2. Compared to the 0.66% growth rate a month earlier, its growth pace has doubled.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 表示，受 9 月下旬价格反弹推动，比特币盈利供应比例一度触及 73.8%（创下 1 月以来新高），目前回调至 72%，仍处于约 76%的长期平均水平下方，表明市场尚未出现过热迹象。与此同时，比特币价格在 8.3 万美元附近维持震荡，其动能指标快慢线均已回落至零值水平。动能归零反映出前期上涨动能暂时停滞，但尚未确立下行反转走势。后续走势需重点关注动能指标是否跌破零轴进入负向区间，以及盈利供应比例能否进一步突破 76%以确认持续复苏趋势。
Odaily reports: CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently clearly dominated by futures trading, with the ratio of Binance spot-to-futures trading volume at approximately 0.12, meaning futures account for roughly 90% of trading volume. Meanwhile, Binance BTC open interest fell from $10.6 billion to $9.2 billion over the past week, but spot demand remains weak, preventing the ratio from improving.Darkfost noted that the current rally is primarily driven by the futures market, and spot buying remains the missing piece. If spot demand fails to follow through, this rally could become unstable.
According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin's adjusted LTH (Long-Term Holders) MVRV metric has exited the mild pressure zone, with the 6-month to 10-year holding cohort collectively returning to profitability. Analyst @_Crypto_glass noted that this is not a phase of deep or sustained losses, but rather a constructive recovery for this holder group, sending a positive signal for the current market cycle.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto posted on X platform that the adjusted long-term holder MVRV has recovered from a shallow stress zone to approximately 1.35, with the long-term holder group spanning 6-month to 10-year holding periods re-entering an overall profitable state.As of September 27, Bitcoin's price was approximately $84,500, while the long-term holder realized price was approximately $62,700, with the spot price sitting about 35% above their cost basis. This metric had fallen below 1.0 five times between June and August, and touched a 2026 low of approximately 0.94 on June 30.
CryptoQuant analyst nocoffeenobrain stated that crypto market sentiment has undergone a significant shift, with the Fear and Greed Index rapidly climbing from around 30 in August to the current 74. Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped to 53.8% and continues its downward trend. Historical data shows that when the sentiment index rises while Bitcoin's dominance remains flat or declines, market capital and momentum tend to flow into sectors outside of Bitcoin;
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is currently trading near $83,000, with exchange outflows reaching their fastest pace since October 2025. On-chain data shows that as of September 27, the average daily net outflow from exchanges over the past seven days totaled 16,100 Bitcoin, indicating a contraction in exchange supply.
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno posted that after the recent rally, Bitcoin's unrealized profit margin rose to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, profit-taking reached 25,700 BTC, the highest level since 2026. In his view, these are typically signals that upward market momentum is weakening and facing pullback risk.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the ratio of the adjusted MVRV's 30-day moving average to its 365-day moving average crossed above its 365-day moving average on August 20, marking Bitcoin's entry into an early bull phase when priced at $71,255. This phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose by 13%.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite Bitcoin’s price consistently climbing, demand recovery remains uneven. Spot demand is at negative 180,000 BTC, while futures demand remains at positive 54,000 BTC; average total demand has improved from negative 188,000 BTC to negative 126,000 BTC over several days. Institutional selling pressure has notably eased, and the Coinbase premium index briefly flashed positive signals. ETF demand has strengthened considerably compared to earlier this summer, with cumulative additions of approximately 70,000 BTC, and net demand since the start of 2026 has also rebounded to negative 17,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the 30-day average net flow on exchanges shows sustained capital outflows throughout September, indicating the broader market continues to lean toward accumulation.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that as the Bitcoin market cap expands and institutional holdings increase, this bull cycle could deliver a 3- to 5-fold gain rather than a parabolic rally exceeding 10x as seen previously, with subsequent bear market declines likely to be relatively moderate. He pointed out that throughout this cycle, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has consistently remained above 1, meaning the broader holder base remains in profit without meaningful unrealized losses; meanwhile, the rising realized market value, early whales halting their distribution, and futures whales building substantial long positions near local bottoms all indicate that funding conditions are improving. He believes Bitcoin’s cyclical extremes are gradually narrowing, and as the market matures, it may further develop monetary attributes.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that Bitcoin rose to approximately $85,700, about 6.4% above its 365-day moving average of $80,500, marking the first breach of the moving average since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Trend Pulse indicator concluded a nine-day neutral phase and resumed a bullish pattern.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin 30-day compression indicator has rebounded to an extreme level of 93.9%, marking the fourth occurrence since the beginning of this bear market phase. Over the past 20 days, Bitcoin price has continuously tested the annual moving average but failed to establish a firm hold, indicating that volatility compression is intensifying near a key resistance level, with the asset potentially facing a directional move in the short term.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rose from $76,300 to $77,400. The Bitcoin liquidation pressure oscillator climbed from +0.48 to +54.52, indicating dominance of short liquidations; meanwhile, the active trading order pressure oscillator moved from -1.88 to +0.86, showing that market buying temporarily outpaced selling. However, the indicator shifted to positive territory for only about four hours, and the buyers' advantage has not yet been fully confirmed. Should the indicator break back below zero alongside an increase in long liquidations, prices could face renewed downward pressure.
CryptoQuant certified analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that CME FedWatch data indicates a 92.7% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, potentially moving the target rate range to 3.75%-4.00%. In the seven rounds of initial rate hikes since 1988, the S&P 500 index declined five times six weeks later, with an average drop of 2.83%. The market has largely priced in this hike, with attention shifting to the future policy path; should the Fed signal a higher frequency of rate hikes or a longer duration of elevated rates, it could further pressure U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that market attention has significantly intensified this week, primarily driven by the upcoming procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate and the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate decision. Data shows a notable increase in altcoin inflow transactions on Binance, with the 7-day average inflow rising from 8,300 in July to 31,800 currently, up nearly fourfold. Coinbase’s altcoin inflows also increased from 2,200 to 4,700, while Bybit rose to 2,700.
CryptoQuant analyst COINDREAM stated that Bitcoin's current trend resembles the market structure of Jan-Feb and March 2026, suggesting the market may be shifting toward a derivatives-driven phase. With spot demand persistently weak, the current rebound lacks stable support, and its continuity is in doubt. In this environment, risk management takes precedence over expectations for further upside.
CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 noted that the Bitcoin long-term holder spent output profit ratio (LTH SOPR) has risen above 1, signaling a shift in the market from a bearish phase to a neutral state. Historically, when this metric rises above 6, it typically corresponds to concentrated profit-taking by long-term holders and cycle peak zones. During the current cycle, the metric has yet to break through 6. Long-term holder coin balances remain at historical highs and have been steadily accumulating, indicating that a large-scale profit-taking phase has not yet materialized.
CryptoQuant certified analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price rose slightly by 0.4%, but selling pressure in the derivatives market has significantly intensified. The Bitcoin Derivatives Pressure Index dropped from -25.36 to -60.80, remaining below zero since September 6, indicating that sellers still dominate. Meanwhile, Coinbase continues to trade at a discount relative to Binance, with the latest Coinbase Premium Index at -0.0455% and its 48-hour average at -0.0323%, showing further weakening over the past 24 hours.