News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.
Bitcoin analyst Plan B stated on the X platform that the core of Bitcoin's long-term value lies in scarcity, not short-term price fluctuations.Plan B believes that many people focus on Bitcoin's price charts, while the S2F model he uses focuses on the degree of asset scarcity. This model measures scarcity through "existing supply ÷ annual new production," where the S2F for gold is approximately 60. Due to Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million coins and its predictable issuance schedule, its S2F is currently around 120 and continues to rise over time.The Bitcoin halving mechanism is an important driver of the S2F model. Approximately every four years, the Bitcoin network reduces the block reward by half, decreasing new supply and roughly doubling the S2F level, making it the core supply-side event observed by the model.Plan B emphasized that the S2F and its upgraded version, the S2FX model, predict long-term average value rather than precisely forecasting market tops or bottoms. Bitcoin's price typically fluctuates around the model's estimated value, and investors should focus on multi-year cycle averages rather than single-day price highs. Additionally, Plan B believes that as scarcity increases, Bitcoin is undergoing different stages of development, including proof of concept, payment network, "digital gold"/store of value asset, and institutional-grade financial asset. Each increase in scarcity could bring new market narratives and capital inflows.However, Plan B also reiterated that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." He stated that the S2F model is merely a tool for long-term understanding of Bitcoin's scarcity, not a trading signal or a "crystal ball" for price prediction. Although the model has withstood major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and China's mining ban, it still has limitations.
Last week, major assets closed higher across the board: July Non-Farm Payrolls -23k severely dampened rate hike expectations, the USD broke below 100, and Gold and Crypto benefited in tandem. BTC/ETH ETF weekly net inflows were $853M/$245M, the third-largest institutional buying week of the year. Core risk this week: 8/12 CPI (08:30 ET), determining the direction of September rate hike expectations. Strategy advances on three fronts: Sell ETH weekly expiry $1,800 P (annualized ~15-20%), Sell HYPE 1D $52 P (annualized ~70%, newly listed on Bybit), Sell XAUT 1D $4,360 C (annualized ~30-60%). All three positions must be reduced to safe levels before CPI.
Odaily News: Part of hardware wallet manufacturer Coldcard's firmware had a random number generation vulnerability in 2021, causing some mnemonic phrases generated by the devices to carry predictable risks. The vulnerability was only discovered years later, and by then approximately 5,200 addresses and around 2,000 BTC had been stolen, with losses totaling about $130 million. Following the incident, some investors turned to Wall Street custody products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $626 million within days of the event. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that security incidents like this could further drive capital flows into ETFs. The Bitcoin core community continues to uphold the principle of self-custody. Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp said recent events should not weaken user confidence in self-custody, as third-party custody carries risks as well. Early Bitcoin Core developer Peter Todd stated that self-custody has a better long-term security track record than centralized institutions. Michael Tanguma, co-founder of Bitcoin custody platform Onramp, said both approaches have flaws: concentrating large amounts of assets in a single institution creates a "honey pot," while hardware wallets face risks related to supply chains, firmware, and random number generation. Michael Tanguma proposed a "multi-institution custody" approach, in which multiple regulated institutions each hold keys through a multi-signature mechanism, and any transaction requires joint signing by multiple institutions to reduce the risk of single points of failure. Critics argue that while multi-institution custody improves security, it also introduces permissioned management, which conflicts with the decentralized ideals Bitcoin originally pursued. As Bitcoin enters pension funds, trusts, and institutional asset allocation, the industry is seeking custody solutions suitable for long-term wealth management. How to strike a balance among security, decentralization, and usability remains a challenge facing the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Odaily News: Bitcoin's BIP-110 will enter the enforcement phase after block 961,632, where nodes will reject blocks that do not signal support. Monitoring page data shows that among the 1,674 blocks counted in the current cycle, only 41 blocks support BIP-110, putting the miner signal support rate at 2.45%. BIP-110, officially named "Reduced Data Temporary Softfork," plans to tighten certain data rules in Bitcoin transactions within approximately one year, restricting the size of certain data elements used by Ordinals inscriptions and multiple token protocols. The proposal is primarily distributed through Bitcoin Knots, and Bitcoin Core has not adopted it. Major mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, F2pool, and Viabtc have not issued support signals. If BIP-110 nodes execute as planned, the network could see two transaction histories, with the majority of miners and Bitcoin Core users expected to continue using the existing rules. Australian Bitcoin exchange Hardblock stated that BIP-110 activation is expected around August 7-8 and may temporarily suspend buying, selling, deposits, and withdrawals. Lightning Network tools and analytics provider Amboss has warned of a fork risk in early August, and Australian Bitcoin exchange Bitaroo plans to freeze deposits and withdrawals as the mandatory signaling deadline approaches.
Odaily News – Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Monday directed the Texas Public Utility Commission and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to audit all data centers seeking to connect to the state's power grid, and paused approvals for ERCOT-related data center projects. The audit timeline has not been disclosed. Bernstein analysts stated that most Bitcoin mining firms operating in Texas have already signed approved power capacity contracts, and their operations are not expected to be affected by the approval pause. They believe the audit will curb speculative data center pipelines, making real sites with development history more valuable. The analysts noted that Cipher Digital, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark's Texas operations may become more vulnerable to public opposition to data center expansion during future ERCOT approval processes to convert pipeline assets into grid-connected power capacity. IREN and Riot Platforms' Texas mining operations have already received full approval from the ERCOT grid.
据 The Block 报道，德克萨斯州州长 Greg Abbott 本周一下令要求公用事业委员会（PUCT）及电网运营商 ERCOT 对州内所有在队列中的数据中心项目展开审计，ERCOT 随即暂停了原定本月公布结果的"Batch Zero"大型用电审批流程。目前数据中心申请占 ERCOT 474GW 互联队列的约 90%。 Bernstein 分析师在周二发布的客户报告中指出，此次监管审查将抑制投机性开发、压缩新增电力容量供给，从而提升已获批电力容量的稀缺价值，利好现有比特币矿企及 AI 运营商。报告点名 Cipher Digital（CIFR）、CleanSpark（CLSK）及 Core Scientific（CORZ）受审计影响较大，因其近期扩张计划依赖德州电网接入；而 Terawulf（WULF）因电力资产分布于肯塔基、马里兰及纽约等多州，抗风险能力较强；Riot Platforms（RIOT）和 IREN 则因已在 ERCOT 拥有大规模获批运营资产而受益。
Trader Doctor Profit stated that his current key positioning is the "Galactic Three", namely Circle, Coinbase, and ETH, believing that the three correspond to compliant stablecoin issuance, crypto asset custody and trading, and tokenization and smart contract infrastructure respectively, and are core targets in the reshaping of the financial system in this new cycle.
AVE has now fully integrated Hyperliquid on-chain contract trading across its mobile app, TG Bot, and PC client, providing users with a more convenient and multi-scenario on-chain contract trading experience.On the occasion of this feature upgrade, AVE is launching the "AVE x Hyperliquid Contract Upgrade Benefits" event, inviting all users to actively participate and share in rewards of up to 12,000U.Event Period: July 16, 2026, 18:00 – July 26, 2026, 23:59 (UTC+8)Two Core Rewards:Open Orders to Share Up to 4,000UUsers who deposit and have a cumulative margin of at least 20 USDT for opening positions will share a 2,000U prize pool. If the number of eligible users exceeds 500, the prize pool doubles to 4,000U.Trading Leaderboard to Share Up to 8,000UUsers with a cumulative trading volume of 20,000U are eligible to participate in the ranking. The top 100 will share the prize pool according to the rules. The base prize pool is 3,000U, increasing with the total trading volume of the event, up to a maximum of 8,000U.Eligible trades will be automatically included in the statistics. Both rewards can be earned simultaneously.Welcome all users to participate in Hyperliquid on-chain contract trading. Trade more, earn more rewards, and collectively unlock a bigger prize pool.Note: This event is subject to the final interpretation rights of Ave.ai. All trading records are uploaded to the blockchain in real-time, ensuring the ranking data is tamper-proof.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale unstaked 440.822 BTC (approximately $28.27 million) from Core (@Coredao_Org) within 1 hour and transferred it to a new wallet address.
: Danny Sanders, Chief Business Officer of hardware wallet manufacturer Trezor, stated that "putting everything into ETFs" might be the worst development path for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, cumulative inflows have exceeded $53 billion, making them a significant driver of BTC prices, but also potentially altering the structure of how users hold their assets.Sanders believes that over-reliance on ETFs will weaken Bitcoin's core principle of "self-custody," gradually shifting asset control to third-party institutions instead of users holding their private keys. Although self-custody carries risks such as lost seed phrases or unrecoverable private key leaks, he considers these more of a psychological barrier than a technical challenge, adding that "it's not difficult once you actually start doing it."Data shows that out of approximately 600 million crypto users globally, only about 10% practice self-custody, and only around 12 to 13 million users employ hardware wallets.As an early hardware wallet provider in the industry, Trezor helped popularize the BIP-39 seed phrase standard and continues to advocate for lowering the barriers to self-custody through improved user experience and educational tools, rather than relying on intermediary custody.Sanders concluded that the industry's long-term goal should be to gradually approach a Web2-level user experience, rather than simply replacing self-custody with ETFs. "That would probably be the worst possible outcome for the entire industry." (The Block)
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, disclosed on X platform that the FTSE Russell Governance Committee has approved adjustments to the fast-entry IPO rules and index minimum admission standards, which received broad support after completing market consultation.According to the latest methodology updates, the rules take immediate effect: when an IPO's investable market capitalization exceeds the market-adjusted total capitalization threshold of the Russell Top 500 Index at the last rebalancing, the IPO becomes eligible for fast entry evaluation into the index. This threshold will be adjusted quarterly on a market basis, initially set against the semi-annual rebalancing. This adjustment aims to enhance the index's responsiveness to large newly listed companies, enabling them to be incorporated into the main benchmark index system more quickly, thereby improving index representativeness and market adaptability.
ahead of the release of the April US CPI data, the crypto market rally has temporarily stalled. Bitcoin has been oscillating within the $80,000 to $82,000 range recently, failing to break out effectively since last Wednesday. Market participants believe that while capital flows still point to the potential for a future breakout, inflation and macroeconomic risks are weighing on risk appetite.The United States will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. According to FactSet data, the market expects April CPI to rise 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March. If this forecast materializes, it would mark the largest increase since January 2024 and be significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year, up from the previous 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that against a backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's characterization of the US-Iran ceasefire as "extremely fragile," inflation data exceeding expectations could further trigger risk-off sentiment in the markets, dragging down risk asset performance.Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM, stated that the market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainties surrounding the Iran situation, and key US economic data could drive increased volatility in commodities, currencies, and global stock markets.Beyond macroeconomic factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today, but this level has repeatedly failed to be breached since February this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance zone around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The US spot XRP ETF recorded net inflows of $25.8 million on Monday, the highest since January 5th. Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net capital inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of $16.9 million. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, at the “Perp DEX Explosion: Bullish Volumes and Bear Market Resilience” panel at Consensus Miami, several industry insiders stated that institutional investors are still largely avoiding decentralized exchanges offering perpetual futures (Perp DEXs). Veteran trader Wizard of SoHo pointed out that Drift’s recent multi-million-dollar hack highlights security vulnerabilities in the DeFi ecosystem, making secure onboarding of institutional capital a core competitive focus for major Perp DEXs. Anderson of Canary Labs expressed concern about DeFi’s current security posture, noting that large institutions face significantly greater challenges adopting decentralized exchanges compared to centralized platforms. Additionally, the structural tension between DeFi’s permissionless, open design and institutions’ stringent KYC compliance requirements is seen as a key barrier to scaling adoption. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, shared his views on AI-powered trading tools, stating that AI agents represent an evolutionary extension of algorithmic trading—and that trading will increasingly become fully automated.
QCP Capital stated in its analysis that after a solid performance in April, Bitcoin continued its strong momentum in early May, breaking through the $80,000 mark for the first time since January 31. Spot ETF inflows remain a significant positive factor, recording approximately $163 million in net inflows last week. Despite Strategy pausing its Bitcoin purchases this week, BTC still managed to rise, indicating that market momentum is no longer solely dependent on the "HODL narrative" and is instead gradually shifting towards broader capital support. The key going forward is whether BTC can effectively hold above the CME gap range of $82,000 to $83,000, which will serve as the core watershed for the continuation of the short-term uptrend.
According to the Aave Governance Forum, Gordon Liao, a Circle team member, has submitted an ARFC proposal recommending a two-step adjustment to the USDC interest rate model parameters on Aave v3 Ethereum Core to address the current liquidity shortage in the USDC pool. Current context: Following the rsETH incident on April 18, the USDC pool utilization has remained persistently near 100%, with available liquidity falling below $3 million. The borrowing rate has been stuck at the 14% cap for an extended period, and the pool’s total supply has contracted by approximately $60 million over the past 24 hours. As a result, the market is unable to clear via price mechanisms. The proposal’s core measures are as follows: Step 1 (to be executed immediately by Risk Administrators): Increase Slope 2 from 10% to 40%, decrease the optimal utilization rate from 92% to 87%, and temporarily suspend the Slope 2 risk oracle for USDC. Step 2 (to be completed within 5–7 days via governance vote): Further increase Slope 2 to 50% and reduce the optimal utilization rate to 85%. The proposal argues that many current borrowers are insensitive to interest rates and primarily borrow to bypass withdrawal queues and exit positions. Active leverage, meanwhile, is key to attracting new suppliers. Raising the maximum supply rate to the 40%–50% range is expected to draw in USDC liquidity within hours, driving utilization below the kink point and restoring the market’s normal clearing functionality.
According to Cointelegraph, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026—exceeding their total sales for all of 2025 and setting a new quarterly record. Data from TheMinerMag indicates that the relevant companies include MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer. The report also notes that the current miner hash price stands at approximately $33 per PH/s per day—below the breakeven level of roughly $35 per PH/s per day for some mining firms. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin miners’ reserves have declined from over 1.86 million BTC in 2023 to approximately 1.8 million BTC.
Bitget officially launched its CFD copy trading feature today, extending its copy trading services to the forex, gold, crude oil, and stock index markets. Amid escalating global macroeconomic volatility and growing cross-asset allocation demand among crypto users, Bitget’s CFD business has recently achieved a single-day trading volume exceeding $6 billion. This new feature leverages Bitget’s mature copy trading infrastructure: users can follow professional traders’ strategies with a minimum investment of just $50 USDT—further lowering the barrier to entry for retail users accessing traditional financial markets. At the product level, CFD copy trading is deeply integrated with the MT5 infrastructure. Account onboarding and withdrawal processes are fully automated, completing in under three seconds. In terms of mechanics, Bitget employs a High-Water Mark (HWM) profit-sharing model, distributing commissions only on newly generated profits from copied trades—ensuring fair and transparent profit allocation. Eligible traders can earn up to 30% commission. Core metrics are updated hourly, and profits are settled daily—enhancing overall transparency and traceability. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, stated: “Copy trading lowers execution barriers, enabling more users to participate in global macro asset allocation. CFD copy trading forms a core component of Bitget’s UEX strategy, which—powered by a unified account and USDT margin system—allows users to seamlessly trade cryptocurrencies, forex, commodities, and stock indices within a single platform.”