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CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its historical bull and bear cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase generated per unit of new capital continues to decline:In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to a roughly 10,000% gain;In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to a roughly 2,000% gain;In the current cycle starting from 2022, approximately $697 billion in capital has been attracted, but the gain is about 689%.The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values coins based on their price at their last movement, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than just an ETF-driven trading asset.Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization expands. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in, achieving the high-multiple growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
According to Glassnode data, long-term holders—wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days—have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, indicating a recovery in BTC demand. Small and medium-sized wallets are leading a broad trend of buying the dip, while the largest whale wallets remain mostly neutral. Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the market has entered a full accumulation phase. (CoinDesk).
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald issued a research report indicating that the crypto market is entering the final phase of the current bear cycle. As of June 10, Bitcoin has declined approximately 51% from its 2025 peak, with 252 days having passed since the peak. Synthesizing the past three market cycles, BTC bottoms on average 384 days after the peak; based on this, the low point of this cycle is projected to appear around the end of October. Analysts also noted that the model is not a precise timing tool, and macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risks remain. Regarding network value assessment, Cantor believes Hyperliquid is the prime example of fee-driven token economics, Bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset, and Ethereum serves as the primary collateral layer for on-chain finance; Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each possess differentiated advantages, but still need to prove that their ecosystem growth can translate into sustained token demand.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $57,700, its lowest level since September 2024, before recovering to $58,800; the market saw $395 million in liquidations, with open interest rising to 768,000 BTC. On Deribit, put options across all maturities traded at a premium over call options, with one block trade betting on a Bitcoin put option expiring in September with a strike price of $50,000. (CoinDesk)
data shows XRP open interest has fallen from approximately $1.3 billion to below $150 million. Network and institutional-related indicators are improving, with daily active addresses rising about 72% from mid-June. On June 29, the XRP spot ETF recorded $15.34 million in inflows. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading narrowly between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth consecutive day. However, analysts warn that this "calm" market condition may conceal greater risks, with the key issue being that this oscillation is occurring within a downtrend.FxPro's Chief Market Analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, stated that the current price action resembles Bitcoin's consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000 from March to October 2024, but the contexts differ. The previous consolidation occurred in a rising market, whereas the current oscillation is below support levels. Additionally, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending downward, indicating the market remains bearish.Kuptsikevich noted that if this consolidation pattern breaks to the downside, rather than forming a base for a rebound, Bitcoin's next significant support zone could be near the $40,000 level.On-chain data is also signaling pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders may be engaging in loss-making selling behavior. In historical cycles, this phase is typically accompanied by short-term pressure, but it may also become a long-term buying opportunity.Meanwhile, market demand remains relatively weak, with active address counts and on-chain transaction activity both at recent lows. Financial pressure on corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy has also heightened market concerns. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently fell to around $71, while its common stock dropped approximately 25% in a week, hitting its lowest level since February 2024.Strategy previously stated that it might sell over $1 billion worth of its Bitcoin reserves to improve its financial situation. This is seen as a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor's "never sell" strategy.Additionally, a strengthening US dollar and continued capital flows into AI-related assets in the US stock market are exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets like Bitcoin. BTC is currently on track to end the second quarter with a decline of approximately 13%, while US stocks remain strong due to the AI investment boom. (CoinDesk)
Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis has released a new methodological proposal aimed at establishing a unified on-chain fund tracking standard framework for law enforcement agencies and investigators to identify address clusters and determine their probable control relationships.The proposal defines the on-chain analysis structure in the form of an "ontology," centralizing the systematic decomposition of the currently industry-wide non-standardized concept of "cluster" (address clustering) into wallet segments and functional roles. It describes on-chain relationships through a two-tier structure: the first layer defines the transaction graph structure, and the second layer assesses the inferred confidence level.Chainalysis states that the framework aims to enhance the interpretability and legal applicability of on-chain forensic methods and has been validated through its practical experience in cases related to the U.S. Department of Justice, including analysis applied in the Bitcoin Fog mixing service case. The company's Chief Scientist, Jacob Illum, noted that the proposal's goal is to answer "on what evidentiary basis can these addresses be considered to belong to the same entity," but emphasized that on-chain analysis alone cannot directly identify end-user identities and must still be combined with legal investigative methods involving centralized entities such as exchanges.Chainalysis stated that the standard proposal is currently open for industry discussion, aiming to promote a more unified technical standard for on-chain analysis methods in the fields of law enforcement and compliance. (CoinDesk)
OdailyOdaily reports that the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine stated it has, for the first time, transferred approximately $8.3 million worth of USDT crypto assets into the national asset management system, marking the country's first official takeover of seized crypto assets. The funds originate from an investigation into an international hacking group, which is alleged to have laundered money through high-value real estate and other assets. The assets were received by the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) of Ukraine, with the transfer completed pursuant to a court order.Officials stated that this operation marks a significant step for Ukraine in the regulation and management of crypto assets, and aligns with ongoing discussions regarding the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve. Previous data indicates that Ukraine ranked among the top in Europe in terms of crypto transaction volume between 2024 and 2025.However, the relevant assets are currently in a "custodial" state and have not been legally forfeited; subsequent judicial conviction procedures are still required. Analysts believe that the mechanism of this move is similar to the path of the United States using criminally forfeited crypto assets to build a potential strategic reserve. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average (200WMA) near $62,400. If this support level breaks down, market focus may shift to the Realized Price—approximately $53,457. The Realized Price represents the network-wide average on-chain cost basis of all Bitcoin holdings. Historically, Bitcoin briefly dipped below this level before establishing cyclical bottoms during the 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market. When market prices fall below investors’ average cost basis, it often triggers panic selling and extreme pessimism. From a holdings-structure perspective, “whales” holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have an average cost basis of roughly $54,300, while “super whales” holding over 100,000 BTC have an average cost basis below $49,000. If large holders tend to defend prices near their cost bases, the bear-market bottom could form within the $50,000–$54,000 range. In contrast, retail investors holding less than 1 BTC have an average cost basis below $48,000—meaning they would remain profitable even if prices decline further.
According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated in a research report released on Friday that the bottom of Bitcoin’s current cycle has been confirmed at $59,000—representing a roughly 53% retracement from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6—and declared, “The crypto winter is over; spring has arrived.”
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that the primary driver behind Bitcoin’s price weakness in 2026 will be slowing capital flows—not the quantum computing threat feared by the market. The report notes that Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs combined attracted approximately $12 billion in inflows this year, a sharp decline from $60 billion in 2025; meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs—holding $75 billion in assets—recorded roughly $2.6 billion in net outflows, with new demand coming mainly from corporate buyers such as MicroStrategy (MSTR). Bernstein analysts attribute the slowdown in capital flows to retail investors’ massive shift into AI-related assets. This year, the strongest-performing segments of the crypto market have been tokenized equities and commodities. Nevertheless, analysts view the ETF outflows as relatively moderate. Bitcoin’s investor base has evolved from one dominated by retail participants to a more diversified group—including ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign investors—resulting in a healthier market structure. The long-term value-storage thesis for Bitcoin remains intact.
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
in April this year, KelpDAO's LayerZero bridge was exploited in a $292 million vulnerability attack, triggering an $8.45 billion deposit run on Aave within 48 hours, marking the largest capital outflow event in decentralized finance (DeFi) history. Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that the design of Aave V3 withstood the market test, demonstrating the network's "resilience." However, independent data indicates that Aave's survival primarily relied on $300 million in emergency rescue, including a 25,000 ETH guarantee from the Aave DAO and a personal injection of 5,000 ETH (approximately $8.4 million) by Kulechov.Kulechov attributed the vulnerability to third-party infrastructure rather than core smart contracts. However, analysts pointed out that this incident exposed deficiencies in Aave's risk architecture and insurance mechanisms, leading the platform to incur significant bad debt (approximately $123.7 million in wETH). To prevent future bridge failures from triggering systemic bank runs, Aave V4 will adopt a modular "hub-and-spoke" architecture, enabling local risk auto-adjustment and collateral freezing. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the core driver behind Bitcoin's drop below $60,000 is not the market's feared Strategy sell-off, but sustained ETF outflows triggered by rising US inflation. Data shows that since US inflation data exceeded expectations in April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net redemptions of approximately $5.4 billion. Over the same period, MicroStrategy actually increased its BTC holdings by around $2 billion, becoming one of the few net buyers.Markus Thielen noted: "The market has misjudged this decline. Strategy is not the issue; the real driver is institutional ETF selling." The market's current focus should shift to the CPI data to be released this Wednesday. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the "higher for longer" interest rate expectation, continuing to pressure risk assets. His model predicts US inflation could rise to 4.3%, higher than the market consensus.10x Research emphasized that market liquidity remains weak: stablecoins saw a net outflow of approximately $5.5 billion last month, and futures open interest has declined, indicating that capital is withdrawing from the crypto market. ETF flows remain the core variable for Bitcoin's price. "Follow the flows, not the narrative." (CoinDesk)
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin's recent rebound lacks solid support. Unlike early February when the price dropped to $60,000 and ETF outflows were only $318 million, the total weekly trading volume then was as high as $46.15 billion, indicating panic selling and fierce competition between bears and bulls. Last week, however, the situation was different: ETF outflows accelerated while trading volume remained low, suggesting the market is experiencing sustained capital outflows rather than the typical panic liquidation seen at a local bottom.Therefore, the sustainability of Bitcoin's rebound remains questionable. To push the price back onto a clear upward trajectory, a significant increase in ETF demand may be necessary. However, based on current conditions, this seems unlikely, as two major IPOs from SpaceX and Anthropic are about to commence, potentially continuing to drain liquidity from the broader market, including the crypto asset market. In the short term, Bitcoin still faces structural pressure, and the rebound may be weak. ETF demand and the dynamics of these large-scale IPOs will be key indicators to watch. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin's price is approaching the key support level of $60,000, and a breach below could trigger accelerated selling.Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, stated that $60,000 is more than just a psychological round number; it is a structural threshold with tangible implications for institutional investors and the derivatives market. Over the past year, a significant amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, purchased BTC at prices between $60,000 and $67,000. As the price approaches these buy zones, investors are near their breakeven point. If the price falls below their cost basis, unrealized losses will increase. This pressure is amplified when traditional markets, such as AI stocks, are rising, raising the opportunity cost of holding BTC and potentially prompting investors to accelerate their selling.The derivatives market is also under strain. Deribit data shows that approximately $1.2 billion in notional value of $60,000 put options remain open. Market makers hedging this risk may be forced to sell spot or futures contracts, thereby accelerating the decline. Simultaneously, there is still a large amount of leveraged long positions in the system. A break below $60,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, intensifying market sell pressure. Péquignot believes that billions of dollars in leveraged long positions have already been liquidated this week. If the $60,000 support level fails, the downward momentum could amplify further, leading to a rapid and chaotic sell-off scenario. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since April 7. The report states that market sentiment was pressured after Strategy sold $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin; additionally, the firm transferred $30 million worth of Bitcoin to a Coinbase Prime wallet last week, raising market concerns about potential future selling pressure.