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CME Group(NASDAQ:CME) is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, trading asset classes including agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes and cryptocurrency futures.
CME CEO: trade.xyz and Hyperliquid Are Having a Real Impact on the U.S. Market
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
CME 拟 10 月推出 AI 算力期货合约
CME Group 与 Silicon Data 计划于 10 月 5 日推出两款 AI 算力期货合约，待监管审查批准后上市，为 AI 企业提供算力成本对冲工具。
Hawks unconvinced, White House pressure mounts, Fed likely to hold rates steady in September
Odaily News Since taking the helm of the Federal Reserve in May, Warsh has faced an exceptionally complex monetary policy dilemma. However, a string of recently released weak macroeconomic data could allow the Fed to maintain its wait-and-see stance for a longer period. The recent decline in inflation indicators has directly undermined the internal hawkish argument that "without rate hikes, inflation cannot be brought down." The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly remained flat month-over-month in July. Data released the day before also showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded only a marginal increase in July after declining in June.When the Fed decided to hold rates unchanged last month, Cleveland Fed President Hammack was one of three policymakers who dissented. She reiterated publicly on Thursday: "I believe we need to act now because we need to bring inflation back down to the 2% target at a faster pace than the long-run downward path implied by current interest rate levels." While internal hawks apply pressure, political interference from the White House has never ceased. Trump continues to call for sharply lower interest rates and has publicly accused Warsh's "hostile" colleagues of obstructing the rate-cut process. Facing multi-sided games, Warsh has remained silent about his own plans, avoiding any form of forward guidance.In any case, the market continues to price in potential tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors currently place a probability of more than 90% that the Fed will raise its policy rate by the end of the year. Caught between tolerating entrenched inflation and pushing up borrowing costs that could lead to rising unemployment, the Fed's next move remains a difficult balancing act.
Silicon Data Secures $30.5 Million Series A Funding, Led by Valor Atreides AI Fund
Odaily News: GPU market data infrastructure company Silicon Data has announced the first closing of its $30.5 million Series A funding round, led by Valor Atreides AI Fund, with participation from CME Ventures, DRW, Samsung Next, VanEck, Jump Trading, Wintermute, and others. The funds will be used for GPU benchmark pricing, performance measurement, institutional and alternative data, as well as risk infrastructure for derivatives, insurance, and credit markets.Silicon Data currently collects data from approximately 100 GPU rental platforms across more than 40 countries worldwide, processing over 150,000 verified price records daily. CME Group plans to adopt Silicon Data's benchmarks as the reference price for its proposed cash-settled GPU futures contracts, pending regulatory approval.
Wall Street's Sharp Critique of Nonfarm Payrolls: This Report Is "Extremely Terrible"
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
Wall Street's Sharp Critique of Nonfarm Payrolls: This Report Is "Extremely Terrible"
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
Analyst: Hyperliquid’s average revenue per user is approximately $56.42 million, far exceeding that of traditional trading platforms such as the CME Group.
Analysis shows that Hyperliquid achieves extremely high efficiency under the “protocol-level infrastructure” model: revenue is nearly equivalent to net profit, and operating costs are close to minimal, reflecting a structural characteristic where “revenue does not scale linearly with headcount.” However, this current advantage exists at a stage where regulatory and compliance costs have not yet been fully realized; should compliance pressures increase in the future, profitability may contract.
CME CEO: US Perpetual Futures Approval Could Bring Tax Uncertainty
: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy stated that the approval of perpetual futures contracts in the United States could expose traders to tax and regulatory uncertainties, as the products may ultimately be classified as swaps rather than futures. Duffy explained that buyers and sellers in perpetual contracts periodically exchange funding rates, a mechanism that aligns with the legal definition of a swap under U.S. law. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently categorizes them as futures, and CME is challenging this classification in court. Duffy noted that if perpetual contracts are treated as futures, some institutional traders may qualify for the mixed tax treatment under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code. If classified as swaps, they may be taxed under ordinary tax rules. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has not yet issued specific guidance on the tax treatment of perpetual futures. Legal experts said that perpetual futures are structurally similar to swaps but serve an economic function akin to futures, making the court’s interpretation of the relevant definitions crucial. Even if the litigation clarifies product classification, the IRS may still need to issue separate tax treatment guidance.
CME Sues CFTC Over On-Chain Perpetual Contracts; Non-US Perpetual Contracts Volume Reached $60 Trillion Last Year
CME Group, the operator of the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig last month, opposing the regulator's approval for prediction market platform Kalshi and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to launch crypto perpetual contracts. Non-US perpetual contracts achieved a trading volume of $60 trillion last year. CME argues that the CFTC misclassified the relevant products and improperly applied the law, claiming that futures should have an expiration date, whereas perpetual contracts allow traders to establish leveraged positions on the future price of an asset without an expiration limit. CME also contends that the products harm its longer-dated futures business and that the CFTC failed to adequately consider the impact. The dispute between the parties intensified during the early stages of the Iran conflict, when demand rose for 24-hour crude oil perpetual contracts on offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid, as well as for on-chain prediction market trading related to the crude oil market. CME subsequently applied to accelerate the launch of 24-hour West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading but was blocked by the CFTC. Kalshi, after launching its first related product last month, stated that its trading volume exceeded $1 billion in less than a week. The CFTC is currently advancing the U.S. perpetual contracts market through policy statements and case-by-case reviews, rather than through new rulemaking procedures.
Bernstein: Crypto-style derivatives have already entered the AI compute market, while CME and ICE futures still await approval.
According to The Block, Bernstein stated that before the compliant computing power futures planned by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are approved, AI computing power derivatives adopting crypto market mechanisms have already launched. Currently, Architect's offshore trading platform AX has launched GPU perpetual futures, while Kalshi has listed GPU rental price event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
June CPI data supports market overestimation of Fed rate hike likelihood
Tony Welch of SignatureFD stated that the market has overestimated the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. After the weak June CPI inflation data, futures markets reflected a lower probability of a rate hike this month, but data from the CME Group indicated that at least one rate hike this year remains possible. Welch said that regardless of fluctuations in fuel prices, inflation is trending downward. He noted that currently, there is no wage growth that could sustain broad-based inflation across the entire economy. Welch expects Fed Chair Powell to attempt to keep inflation expectations near the Fed's 2% target and use rhetoric to help set and stabilize those expectations.
CME Group Sues CFTC Over Crypto Perpetual Futures Approval
Odaily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Michael Selig in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, concerning the agency's routine approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures. The lawsuit stems from the CFTC’s May 29 approval of a perpetual futures contract linked to the spot price of Bitcoin by prediction market platform Kalshi, and the issuance of a no-action position for a similar product on the Coinbase exchange. In the filing, CME argues that the CFTC's treatment of "futures" with expiration dates as "swaps" violates directives from the U.S. Congress and the Commodity Exchange Act, and requests the court to invalidate the relevant perpetual futures actions. CME also claims that Selig acted unilaterally without a full panel of five commissioners. A CFTC spokesperson stated that CME is waging a "legal battle" against the agency and the government’s crypto policy, calling the lawsuit "frivolous." Kraken has also announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for U.S. users via the CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.
CFTC Considers Blocking CME’s 24/7 Crude Oil Contract Launch Plan
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is considering blocking the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group)’s plan to launch around-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. CME previously announced it would launch 24-hour, seven-days-a-week crude oil and gold futures contracts—a move that reportedly caught the CFTC off guard, escalating tensions between the two parties.
Related news
CME CEO: trade.xyz and Hyperliquid Are Having a Real Impact on the U.S. Market
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
CME 拟 10 月推出 AI 算力期货合约
CME Group 与 Silicon Data 计划于 10 月 5 日推出两款 AI 算力期货合约，待监管审查批准后上市，为 AI 企业提供算力成本对冲工具。
Hawks unconvinced, White House pressure mounts, Fed likely to hold rates steady in September
Odaily News Since taking the helm of the Federal Reserve in May, Warsh has faced an exceptionally complex monetary policy dilemma. However, a string of recently released weak macroeconomic data could allow the Fed to maintain its wait-and-see stance for a longer period. The recent decline in inflation indicators has directly undermined the internal hawkish argument that "without rate hikes, inflation cannot be brought down." The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly remained flat month-over-month in July. Data released the day before also showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded only a marginal increase in July after declining in June.When the Fed decided to hold rates unchanged last month, Cleveland Fed President Hammack was one of three policymakers who dissented. She reiterated publicly on Thursday: "I believe we need to act now because we need to bring inflation back down to the 2% target at a faster pace than the long-run downward path implied by current interest rate levels." While internal hawks apply pressure, political interference from the White House has never ceased. Trump continues to call for sharply lower interest rates and has publicly accused Warsh's "hostile" colleagues of obstructing the rate-cut process. Facing multi-sided games, Warsh has remained silent about his own plans, avoiding any form of forward guidance.In any case, the market continues to price in potential tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors currently place a probability of more than 90% that the Fed will raise its policy rate by the end of the year. Caught between tolerating entrenched inflation and pushing up borrowing costs that could lead to rising unemployment, the Fed's next move remains a difficult balancing act.
Silicon Data Secures $30.5 Million Series A Funding, Led by Valor Atreides AI Fund
Odaily News: GPU market data infrastructure company Silicon Data has announced the first closing of its $30.5 million Series A funding round, led by Valor Atreides AI Fund, with participation from CME Ventures, DRW, Samsung Next, VanEck, Jump Trading, Wintermute, and others. The funds will be used for GPU benchmark pricing, performance measurement, institutional and alternative data, as well as risk infrastructure for derivatives, insurance, and credit markets.Silicon Data currently collects data from approximately 100 GPU rental platforms across more than 40 countries worldwide, processing over 150,000 verified price records daily. CME Group plans to adopt Silicon Data's benchmarks as the reference price for its proposed cash-settled GPU futures contracts, pending regulatory approval.
Wall Street's Sharp Critique of Nonfarm Payrolls: This Report Is "Extremely Terrible"
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.