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Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, stated that the U.S. crypto market structure bill—the CLARITY Act—has entered a critical legislative phase. With the Senate’s key compromise proposal on stablecoin yield officially released, positive signals have emerged for the bill’s advancement. The Senate Banking Committee could begin formal consideration as early as the week of May 11. The new proposal explicitly expands the scope of stablecoin yield restrictions—from issuers to third-party platforms, including crypto exchanges such as Coinbase—and stipulates that yields must not be paid solely because users hold stablecoins (i.e., idle balances), nor may rewards be distributed in forms that are economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposit interest.
According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, Policy Lead at crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the U.S. crypto market structure bill—the Clarity Act—continues to face multiple obstacles in its legislative process, with only about a 30% chance of passage this year. The bill aims to clarify the respective regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. However, current negotiations are progressing unevenly, and the timeline has been repeatedly delayed. Key resistance stems from traditional banking institutions—particularly over whether stablecoins should be permitted to generate yield—a point of serious disagreement. Related compromise proposals have repeatedly stalled. Moreover, internal divisions among Democrats, as well as issues concerning DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering (AML), further add uncertainty to the legislation. That said, Ron Hammond believes the bill still retains room for advancement; whether it can be enacted this year ultimately hinges on whether critical disagreements can be resolved.