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Bybit Weekly Report: Probability of Rate Hike Rises to 60%; Peace Talks Cannot Rescue the Crypto Market; DVOL Hits All-Time Low—Caution Advised

Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.

Bullish Reports $605 Million Net Loss in Q1, Adjusted Metrics Still Show Growth

crypto exchange Bullish has released its Q1 2026 financial report, recording a net loss of $604.9 million, with the loss scale expanding compared to the same period last year. The company stated that the loss is primarily due to non-cash items such as changes in the fair value of digital asset holdings.Despite the increase in book losses, Bullish's adjusted performance saw growth. Q1 adjusted revenue was $92.8 million, up from $62.4 million in the same period last year; adjusted net profit was $20.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $35.1 million, all showing significant increases year-over-year.Following the earnings report, Bullish's share price once fell over 11% before recovering to near the previous day's closing level.On the business front, Bullish stated it has solidified its position as the second-largest exchange for Bitcoin options. Q1 options trading volume reached $11.6 billion, accounting for approximately 14% of open interest. However, its adjusted trading revenue declined year-over-year to $38 million, and digital asset sales also fell from $80.2 billion to $51.8 billion.