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According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
According to Trend Research, Deutsche Bank's September 25, 2026 research report states that tech stocks have risen 14% since late July, while the rest of the S&P 500 has declined 3%. Tech stock positioning stands at the 80th percentile, down from a peak of 99 percentiles in early June. Overall large-cap positioning is at the 79th percentile, systematic strategies at 91 percentiles, and discretionary strategies at 64 percentiles. Equity funds saw $10.2 billion in outflows, marking the first instance in three months, with U.S. equity funds posting $21.2 billion in outflows. Bond funds recorded $17.3 billion in inflows.
Market charts show bond traders are adjusting positions in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes and the risk of rising interest rates.
According to Cointelegraph, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out in the latest client report that the U.S. Treasury announced the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bond buybacks will be at least doubled from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion, with an execution period from September 9 to November 4. This policy drove long-term U.S. Treasury yields down significantly, effectively alleviating selling pressure in the bond market. Kendrick stated that such government liquidity interventions have historically been bullish for Bitcoin, and coupled with its fixed supply attribute, BTC is expected to hit $100,000 before the end of the year. Technically, he views $65,500 as a key support level; once effectively broken above, it can confirm that the bottom of this cycle has appeared.
Odaily News – Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026 as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-term bond market.In a recent client report, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin's current key technical resistance level is $65,500. If the price breaks through this level, it could signal that the cyclical low for this market cycle has already formed. He suggested investors begin positioning for a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 by year-end. Kendrick stated that beyond the four-year cycle pattern for Bitcoin, which suggests the market may be nearing a bottom, the U.S. Treasury's recent announcement to expand long-term bond buybacks is also a significant catalyst.The U.S. Treasury plans to raise the cap on buyback operations for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The expanded program is scheduled to be implemented from September 9 to November 4. Following the announcement, yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries notably declined, easing the pressure that the significant sell-off in the bond market had placed on financial markets.Kendrick believes the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks represent a "favorable environment for Bitcoin," as Bitcoin has previously benefited multiple times from government liquidity interventions, while its fixed supply mechanism gives it properties that hedge against currency debasement. In the market, Bitcoin rose over 6% on Wednesday, briefly approaching $69,000, marking its highest level since early June. Kendrick has previously been repeatedly bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, arguing that as global fiscal pressures increase and monetary policy trends toward easing, Bitcoin may enter a new long-term upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' August 3 position tracking report shows that the volume of long sales for global information technology stocks last week reached the highest level since 2014, with the total selling volume over two consecutive days ranking second highest in nearly a decade. Hedge funds' total leverage gave back half of its year-to-date gains, and net leverage turned negative year-to-date. Retail margin balances in South Korea and Japan began to reverse after reaching historical extremes, while US retail investors are also reducing semiconductor stock holdings. Speculative net shorts in VIX futures have largely been cleared. Goldman Sachs believes the intensity of deleveraging may have peaked, but the inertia of capital outflows persists. Individual stock implied volatility rose to the highest level since 2020, index correlation fell to low levels, and the market is shifting from trading the AI sector broadly to differentiated pricing of individual stocks. Bond funds and money market funds are the main drivers of capital inflows this year; equity funds saw inflows of $34 billion in July, with an absolute scale far smaller than that of the bond market. Goldman Sachs judges that the stock selection environment is improving, but sector beta trading still faces pressure.
Odaily News, July saw the U.S. manufacturing PMI rise to 55.6, the highest since 2022, with both production and employment recovering. However, strong demand and geopolitical inflation concerns have roiled the bond market, with Bank of America warning that the Federal Reserve is facing a credibility test. The hot manufacturing performance, coupled with geopolitical inflation threats, has sent U.S. Treasury markets into sharp turbulence. Long-dated Treasuries have recently faced heavy selling, with yields briefly surging to near two-decade highs.Mark Cabana, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Bank of America, commented on this, calling the bond market's violent swings a "textbook inflation credibility shock."Cabana noted that the core driver of the market turmoil is not the data itself, but the Fed's lack of policy communication. He specifically pointed to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's performance at a recent press conference, arguing that Warsh failed to clearly articulate how the Fed would achieve its 2% inflation target."Standing firm on the inflation target is one thing, but if you don't tell the market the specific path, investors won't buy it," Cabana said bluntly in a Bloomberg TV interview. "The bond market cannot be fooled; it sees through all appearances." (Jin10)