Bitcoin Approximately 69-73 Days Away from Cycle Bottom, Analysts and Institutions Disagree on Four-Year Cycle
According to BeInCrypto, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin is currently on day 1,363 of this cycle, while the past two cycles bottomed out on day 1,432 and day 1,436 respectively. Based on this, the bottom of this cycle is estimated to appear in October 2026, approximately 69-73 days from now. Cowen also pointed out that August and September have historically been seasonally weak periods for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 10% in August during midterm election years.
However, this prediction faces institutional-level skepticism. Fidelity pointed out that within months after Bitcoin hit an all-time high, one-year volatility touched a new low, a signal that never appeared in previous cycles; Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that continuous inflows into spot ETFs and corporate balance sheet allocation demands have weakened traditional halving cycle patterns; Grayscale's 2026 outlook report also holds a similar view. Cowen, however, insists that although tops are becoming flatter, the bottom ranges of the four cycles have hardly shifted.