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Odaily report: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on X with a chart, stating that compared to the end of August, the Bitcoin market trend has shown a clear shift, which can be observed from changes in the Capital Cost Basis. This metric calculates a weighted realized price based on transaction volume (USD), giving higher weight to BTC purchased at higher prices, thereby more accurately reflecting the actual cost of market capital.Data shows that at the end of August, BTC was still struggling near this key level, but Bitcoin has now closed above the capital cost basis of approximately $80,400 for several consecutive weeks. This means that most of the capital invested in the market is now in slight profit. As investor positions gradually turn profitable, market stability is strengthening by the day, which is a positive signal for the current BTC consolidation phase.
Odaily News - Crypto analyst Axel Adler posted that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their holdings for the 7th consecutive week, but this has not yet hindered BTC price appreciation, as the market is still absorbing the supply released by long-term holders.Data shows that the long-term holder position change indicator remained positive from February to early August this year, with long-term holders accumulating approximately 1.2 million BTC in May. The indicator turned negative on August 17 and has been in a state of reduction for 7 consecutive weeks. As of September 28, the long-term holder position change showed a decrease of 73,400 BTC, expanding from a decrease of 1,100 BTC a week earlier.Axel Adler noted that compared to the approximately 1.07 million BTC reduced by long-term holders in November 2025, the current scale of reduction remains relatively limited. If long-term holders' reductions reach hundreds of thousands of BTC again in the future while BTC price stops rising, it may signal that the market's capacity to absorb supply is declining.Additionally, the long-term holder SOPR indicator has now been above 1 for the second consecutive week, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits. On September 21, the indicator rose to 1.24, the highest level since January this year; as of September 28, LTH SOPR stood at 1.18, meaning that BTC being moved has realized approximately 18% in realized profit relative to its cost basis. Current data shows that long-term holders are gradually exiting with profits as BTC price rises, while new demand is still able to absorb the supply released by the market.
According to Odaily, glassnode posted on X that the trend of BTC whales making net deposits of Bitcoin to exchanges has stopped. This trend lasted for more than three months since the summer, twice as long as other similar trends since 2023, and ended in late August, after which fund flows have continued to be negative.
Odaily reports: Binance founder CZ stated in a recent interview that he was assigned to the low-security Lompoc II prison in California, where FTX founder SBF was later also detained.Before entering prison, CZ assembled an advisory team to learn the rules of the prison cell block, and communicated with other inmates through one of his advisors to adapt to prison life.In August 2024, CZ left Lompoc prison and was transferred to a halfway house, spending his final two weeks at a local jail due to immigration status issues; within 26 minutes of his release, his private jet took off.
Odaily News: In September, long-dormant Bitcoin addresses transferred out 5,419.45 BTC, worth approximately $457 million, involving 94 transactions. The transfer volume was lower than August's 6,427.59 BTC but higher than July's; among them, wallets created in 2016 transferred out 1,556.53 BTC across 13 transactions.Wallets created in 2013 transferred out approximately 888.91 BTC across 26 transactions. Another roughly 57 transfers involved Bitcoin that had been dormant for 12 to 16 years; September 6 saw the highest transfer volume, reaching 1,620.39 BTC. (Bitcoin.com News)
according to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's monitoring, a certain address has become the address with the highest unrealized profit on ETH positions on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million. This address has been gradually building ETH long positions since mid-August, and currently holds approximately 30,300 ETH, worth about $81.96 million, with an average entry price of $2,134.45 and a return rate of 407.96%. Additionally, this address has placed a limit sell order at $4,000, which is 49% higher than the current price.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, a whale deposited 6,595.2 ETH to Coinbase 3 hours ago, worth approximately $17.57 million. Of this, 6,500 ETH was withdrawn from exchanges between June and August 2025 at an average price of $3,040.4, with unrealized losses once exceeding $9.557 million during that period. After holding ETH for about a year, the whale appears to have cut losses and exited, with an estimated loss of $2.443 million and a 12.3% decline in assets.
QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin broke out of its recent $82,500 to $85,700 consolidation range, briefly reaching $86,913 to mark its highest level since September 23. Meanwhile, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts stood at approximately 5.4%, indicating that this rally is more heavily driven by spot capital than leverage. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively.
Odaily News: HL HUB (Community) posted on X that Hyperliquid is expected to receive its first AQAv2 reserve yield distribution tomorrow (October 3). Approximately $14.5 million in passive yield generated from USDC reserves will flow into the Assistance Fund for HYPE buybacks.It is reported that under AQAv2's revenue-sharing mechanism, Hyperliquid stablecoin deployers are required to allocate 90% of stablecoin reserve yield to the Hyperliquid protocol, and 100% of these proceeds will be used for buying back and burning HYPE tokens. Stablecoin reserve yield sharing is accumulated and settled on a 30-day cycle, with proceeds automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends. Formal yield accrual began on August 26, so the first yield payment will be made on October 3.
crypto analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that the Bitcoin futures market buying pressure indicator has risen to 4.9, the highest since August 19; contract open interest increased by nearly 9,000 BTC within 24 hours. This indicator reading means that the accumulated buying pressure over the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations above the average level of the past week. @AxelAdlerJr stated that if Bitcoin's price remains above $85,000 when upward momentum weakens, the rally is likely to continue; if the price falls below $83,000, the closing of newly established long positions could accelerate the decline.
Odaily News — According to monitoring by the Drift Foundation, the Drift Foundation has released an update on fund recovery progress related to the April 1 security incident: approximately $295 million in user assets were stolen. The foundation has engaged Mandiant, zeroShadow, and SEAL 911 to conduct the investigation and trace the funds, with Mandiant identifying the attacker as the North Korean threat group UNC6862.The stolen funds were subsequently bridged to Ethereum, with approximately 130,300 ETH distributed across 4 wallets. Three of these wallets have seen no transfers to date, collectively holding 107,200 ETH; the other wallet transferred approximately 23,100 ETH to Tornado Cash on July 23.Currently, approximately $9.2 million in stolen funds has been frozen. The relevant funds had previously been transferred through Tornado Cash in August, and unfreezing and return still require cooperation with legal procedures. The Drift Foundation will transfer all assets recovered through freezing, bounties, or law enforcement channels into the DFX recovery pool, and is evaluating the subsequent path of the DRIFT token within the broader ecosystem. In addition, the foundation has partnered with Bybit to launch a public bounty program, offering a 10% bounty on successfully recovered funds.
According to monitoring by Arkham (@arkham), on-chain address @pointfarmcap has cumulatively invested $1.49 million across 1,896 buy transactions to build a position in STONK since early August this year, when the token’s market cap was just approximately $2.65 million. STONK’s market cap has since risen to $222 million, with the address’s holdings now valued at $9.97 million. Having cashed out only $916,000, the position reflects an unrealized profit exceeding 10x.
Odaily News: The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Massachusetts filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit on September 28, seeking the forfeiture of 110,300 USDT seized from a Binance account. The case involves phishing text messages impersonating Coinbase, which led to the theft of 33.7 bitcoins, worth approximately $900,000 at the time, from a beneficiary and their family trust held in the same Coinbase account.Investigators said that between June 5 and June 15, 2023, 11.2 of the stolen bitcoins were traced to the Binance account and were quickly converted into Monero. When the FBI requested the account be frozen, it held approximately 758.55 Monero; Binance transferred 110,300 USDT to a government-controlled wallet on August 3, 2026. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto posted on X platform that the adjusted long-term holder MVRV has recovered from a shallow stress zone to approximately 1.35, with the long-term holder group spanning 6-month to 10-year holding periods re-entering an overall profitable state.As of September 27, Bitcoin's price was approximately $84,500, while the long-term holder realized price was approximately $62,700, with the spot price sitting about 35% above their cost basis. This metric had fallen below 1.0 five times between June and August, and touched a 2026 low of approximately 0.94 on June 30.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's monitoring, a smart money address bought 10.26 million Niu Lai tokens on August 17 at a price of $0.02892. After holding for 44 days, the address deposited all tokens into Binance 1 hour ago, valued at $1.181 million. The address appears to have fully liquidated its position, which would yield a profit of over $885,000 if sold; this portion of tokens previously had unrealized gains of up to $1.365 million.
According to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai, casualpig.eth (0x651...f0314) withdrew 1,754 ETH from Bybit 3 hours ago, worth $4.65 million. This address has opened a new ETH position after a one-year gap; its previous ETH swing trade occurred between August and October 2025, when it withdrew at an ETH price of $4,751.74 and deposited back when the price dropped to $4,433.10, with an estimated loss of $449,000.
CryptoQuant analyst nocoffeenobrain stated that crypto market sentiment has undergone a significant shift, with the Fear and Greed Index rapidly climbing from around 30 in August to the current 74. Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped to 53.8% and continues its downward trend. Historical data shows that when the sentiment index rises while Bitcoin's dominance remains flat or declines, market capital and momentum tend to flow into sectors outside of Bitcoin;
Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's monitoring, an address bought 674,000 VVV on-chain at an average price of $3.77 between April and August 2025, worth $2.544 million, with a take-profit price of $20.85. Some tokens were sold a year ago, and the remaining tokens were deposited to exchanges in batches over the past three months, with deposit prices rising from $11.79 to $30, and the position was fully liquidated 8 hours ago. Holding for over a year generated a cumulative profit of $7.889 million; if sold, the return rate would exceed 453%.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, a whale opened a long position on 550,000 SOL at $80.8 in early August, and after holding for a month and a half, the position now shows an unrealized profit of $22.43 million. Over the same period, the SOL price rose from the $70s to the $120s.
Odaily News: On-chain analyst Darkfost posted on X stating that since June 2026, the total market capitalization of altcoins (Total2), including ETH, has attracted over $371 billion in cumulative capital inflows, representing an increase of approximately 45%. Meanwhile, about 87% of altcoins on Binance have now reclaimed their 200-day moving average, whereas in August of this year, approximately 80% of altcoins were still trading below this moving average.Darkfost believes this reflects a clear recent concentration of capital into altcoins, while market sentiment has shown signs of overheating to some degree, and it remains to be seen whether the momentum can be sustained going forward.