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Binance Research: Real Yields Hit New Highs Since 2008, Highly Concentrated Leadership in Crypto and Equity Sectors

According to a report from Binance Research, since August 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 47 basis points to 5.22%, with 43 basis points driven by an increase in real yields (currently at 2.87%, peaking at 2.95% on October 5, the highest since 2008), while inflation expectations contributed only 4 basis points. Since the rate hike on September 16, leading market sectors have been highly concentrated: in equities, the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, led by semiconductors up 10.6%, while small-cap and bank stocks declined, and the equal-weight index remained flat; in crypto markets, Bitcoin gained 9.3%, Ethereum rose 2.7%, with Layer 2 (+32%), RWA (+29%), and AI tokens (+29%) leading the way, while Meme coins and payment tokens only advanced 5%. In terms of fund flows, net inflows into stocks on the Binance platform reached $169 million, with semiconductor-related inflows nearly quadrupling to $73 million, and Intel attracting $32 million in a single week despite a 12% drop in its stock price. Key focus areas ahead include the September CPI data (expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%) and the banking earnings season, which will serve as a key test of the current market landscape.

Fee revenue share remains below 1%, and old Bitcoin mining machines face profitability pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin transaction fee revenue averaged 0.64% of miners' total revenue, down from 0.65% the previous week, and has remained below 1% since mid-August 2025. Miners' revenue still mainly comes from newly issued Bitcoin, with fees contributing limited support to profitability; although Bitcoin's price has rebounded from around $59,000 to $84,000, older mining machines still face significant profitability pressure at current electricity prices. The above costs only account for electricity expenses and do not include other expenditures such as mining machine purchases, cooling facilities, and maintenance. A fee revenue share below 1% does not directly mean that miners are shutting down operations on a large scale or selling off reserves.

Analyst: Bitcoin miner transaction fee revenue accounts for less than 1%, with older mining rigs still facing significant profitability pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, transaction fees accounted for an average of only 0.64% of Bitcoin miner revenue, down slightly from 0.65% a week ago and remaining consistently below 1% since mid-August 2025. This indicates that current miner revenue still relies primarily on block rewards, with fees providing limited support to profitability.

No soft fork required: StarkWare verifies quantum-safe locking scheme on Bitcoin mainnet, but it is not yet suitable for large-scale use

Starknet has published an introduction to its Quantum-Safe Bitcoin (QSB) scheme, stating that StarkWare researchers have verified a quantum-safe locking mechanism on the Bitcoin mainnet that requires no soft fork, no new opcodes, and no changes to consensus rules. The first QSB output was spent on August 26, 2026, in Bitcoin mainnet block 964,199, with the associated GPU computation cost reduced from approximately $320 to about $50. QSB builds its locking mechanism through hash computation, but each transaction still requires substantial computation, and moving assets into the scheme still requires a traditional transaction that carries quantum risk. The transaction does not comply with Bitcoin Core's default relay rules, and there is currently no accompanying wallet, address format, or recovery process. StarkWare stated that QSB is an emergency research solution, and that the long-term solution still requires the introduction of post-quantum signature mechanisms via a soft fork. Starknet's full quantum resistance also depends on the progress of Ethereum's underlying upgrades.

Analyst: Binance Ethereum Reserves Hit 6-Month Low, Single-Day Withdrawal Transactions Hit Record High

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the cryptocurrency market has recently entered a short-term correction phase, with the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin (Total2) shrinking by over $110 billion within three days; Ethereum (ETH) alone fell by 11%, erasing more than $38 billion in market value. Despite the price pullback, investors continue to accumulate and withdraw Ethereum. During this period, ETH reserves on Binance dropped from 3.57 million coins to 3.47 million coins, reaching a six-month low—a decrease of nearly 11.5% compared to the 3.92 million coins held in August. Meanwhile, withdrawal activity on the Binance platform surged significantly, with over 320,000 ETH withdrawal transactions recorded on October 6 alone, setting a new all-time high.

Analysis: Bitcoin Miners Have Stopped Mass Selling, Selling Pressure Sources Have Notably Weakened

Odaily reports: CryptoQuant posted on X platform that Bitcoin miners have recently stopped large-scale selling. Since Bitcoin hit a low of $76,000 on August 21 and miner status shifted from "extremely underpaid" to "fairly paid," no extreme miner fund outflows have occurred.CryptoQuant stated that miner selling pressure was once a significant supply source continuously affecting Bitcoin's price during the 2026 bear market, and the current disappearance of this steady selling pressure may help alleviate market supply pressure.

After losing $37.6 million, rollover trader @AguilaTrades goes long on 100 BTC on Hyperliquid after a 14-month hiatus

Odaily News: According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ember, rollover trader @AguilaTrades (0x1f25...f925) frequently used large positions to roll over long positions on Hyperliquid from June to August last year, losing $37.6 million within 2 months, and had not opened any positions on Hyperliquid for 14 consecutive months since then. 20 minutes ago, they withdrew 500,000 USDC from Bybit to Hyperliquid, then went long on 100 BTC worth $8.29 million, with an entry price of $82,962 and a liquidation price of $78,997.

Analyst: Excluding BTC dormant for over 10 years, the market's circulating supply in profit reaches 60% and has not yet overheated.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after excluding Bitcoin (BTC) that has not moved in over 10 years, the proportion of the BTC supply in a profitable state has remained around 60% since August. The analysis notes that from a medium- to long-term perspective, most BTC in the market has returned to a profitable state and is far from overheated levels. Consolidation around this level is therefore a reasonable development.

Analyst: Bitcoin Breaks Above Key Cost Basis Line, Most Market Capital Now in Profit

Odaily report: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on X with a chart, stating that compared to the end of August, the Bitcoin market trend has shown a clear shift, which can be observed from changes in the Capital Cost Basis. This metric calculates a weighted realized price based on transaction volume (USD), giving higher weight to BTC purchased at higher prices, thereby more accurately reflecting the actual cost of market capital.Data shows that at the end of August, BTC was still struggling near this key level, but Bitcoin has now closed above the capital cost basis of approximately $80,400 for several consecutive weeks. This means that most of the capital invested in the market is now in slight profit. As investor positions gradually turn profitable, market stability is strengthening by the day, which is a positive signal for the current BTC consolidation phase.

Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Reducing Positions for 7 Consecutive Weeks, Market Still Absorbing Selling Pressure

Odaily News - Crypto analyst Axel Adler posted that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their holdings for the 7th consecutive week, but this has not yet hindered BTC price appreciation, as the market is still absorbing the supply released by long-term holders.Data shows that the long-term holder position change indicator remained positive from February to early August this year, with long-term holders accumulating approximately 1.2 million BTC in May. The indicator turned negative on August 17 and has been in a state of reduction for 7 consecutive weeks. As of September 28, the long-term holder position change showed a decrease of 73,400 BTC, expanding from a decrease of 1,100 BTC a week earlier.Axel Adler noted that compared to the approximately 1.07 million BTC reduced by long-term holders in November 2025, the current scale of reduction remains relatively limited. If long-term holders' reductions reach hundreds of thousands of BTC again in the future while BTC price stops rising, it may signal that the market's capacity to absorb supply is declining.Additionally, the long-term holder SOPR indicator has now been above 1 for the second consecutive week, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits. On September 21, the indicator rose to 1.24, the highest level since January this year; as of September 28, LTH SOPR stood at 1.18, meaning that BTC being moved has realized approximately 18% in realized profit relative to its cost basis. Current data shows that long-term holders are gradually exiting with profits as BTC price rises, while new demand is still able to absorb the supply released by the market.

The trend of net Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has ended, and the over-3-month BTC whale sell-off has come to an end

According to Odaily, glassnode posted on X that the trend of BTC whales making net deposits of Bitcoin to exchanges has stopped. This trend lasted for more than three months since the summer, twice as long as other similar trends since 2023, and ended in late August, after which fund flows have continued to be negative.

CZ: Was once detained in the same prison as SBF

Odaily reports: Binance founder CZ stated in a recent interview that he was assigned to the low-security Lompoc II prison in California, where FTX founder SBF was later also detained.Before entering prison, CZ assembled an advisory team to learn the rules of the prison cell block, and communicated with other inmates through one of his advisors to adapt to prison life.In August 2024, CZ left Lompoc prison and was transferred to a halfway house, spending his final two weeks at a local jail due to immigration status issues; within 26 minutes of his release, his private jet took off.

$457M in Bitcoin Dormant Addresses Moved 5,419 BTC

Odaily News: In September, long-dormant Bitcoin addresses transferred out 5,419.45 BTC, worth approximately $457 million, involving 94 transactions. The transfer volume was lower than August's 6,427.59 BTC but higher than July's; among them, wallets created in 2016 transferred out 1,556.53 BTC across 13 transactions.Wallets created in 2013 transferred out approximately 888.91 BTC across 26 transactions. Another roughly 57 transfers involved Bitcoin that had been dormant for 12 to 16 years; September 6 saw the highest transfer volume, reaching 1,620.39 BTC. (Bitcoin.com News)

Since mid-August, a certain address's ETH long position has gained $16.52 million in unrealized profit, holding over 30,000 ETH

according to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's monitoring, a certain address has become the address with the highest unrealized profit on ETH positions on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million. This address has been gradually building ETH long positions since mid-August, and currently holds approximately 30,300 ETH, worth about $81.96 million, with an average entry price of $2,134.45 and a return rate of 407.96%. Additionally, this address has placed a limit sell order at $4,000, which is 49% higher than the current price.

After holding ETH for about a year, a whale appears to have cut losses, expected to lose $2.443 million and deposited 6,595.2 ETH to Coinbase

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, a whale deposited 6,595.2 ETH to Coinbase 3 hours ago, worth approximately $17.57 million. Of this, 6,500 ETH was withdrawn from exchanges between June and August 2025 at an average price of $3,040.4, with unrealized losses once exceeding $9.557 million during that period. After holding ETH for about a year, the whale appears to have cut losses and exited, with an estimated loss of $2.443 million and a 12.3% decline in assets.

QCP: Bitcoin's current rally is primarily driven by capital flows and positioning, with tonight's non-farm payrolls serving as the key short-term test.

QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin broke out of its recent $82,500 to $85,700 consolidation range, briefly reaching $86,913 to mark its highest level since September 23. Meanwhile, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts stood at approximately 5.4%, indicating that this rally is more heavily driven by spot capital than leverage. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively.

Hyperliquid to Receive First AQAv2 Reserve Yield Distribution Tomorrow, Approximately $14.5 Million for HYPE Buybacks

Odaily News: HL HUB (Community) posted on X that Hyperliquid is expected to receive its first AQAv2 reserve yield distribution tomorrow (October 3). Approximately $14.5 million in passive yield generated from USDC reserves will flow into the Assistance Fund for HYPE buybacks.It is reported that under AQAv2's revenue-sharing mechanism, Hyperliquid stablecoin deployers are required to allocate 90% of stablecoin reserve yield to the Hyperliquid protocol, and 100% of these proceeds will be used for buying back and burning HYPE tokens. Stablecoin reserve yield sharing is accumulated and settled on a 30-day cycle, with proceeds automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends. Formal yield accrual began on August 26, so the first yield payment will be made on October 3.

Bitcoin futures buying pressure rises to highest since August 19, open interest increases by nearly 9,000 BTC in 24 hours

crypto analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that the Bitcoin futures market buying pressure indicator has risen to 4.9, the highest since August 19; contract open interest increased by nearly 9,000 BTC within 24 hours. This indicator reading means that the accumulated buying pressure over the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations above the average level of the past week. @AxelAdlerJr stated that if Bitcoin's price remains above $85,000 when upward momentum weakens, the rally is likely to continue; if the price falls below $83,000, the closing of newly established long positions could accelerate the decline.

About $295 million in user assets stolen, Drift Foundation says 107,200 ETH still not moved

Odaily News — According to monitoring by the Drift Foundation, the Drift Foundation has released an update on fund recovery progress related to the April 1 security incident: approximately $295 million in user assets were stolen. The foundation has engaged Mandiant, zeroShadow, and SEAL 911 to conduct the investigation and trace the funds, with Mandiant identifying the attacker as the North Korean threat group UNC6862.The stolen funds were subsequently bridged to Ethereum, with approximately 130,300 ETH distributed across 4 wallets. Three of these wallets have seen no transfers to date, collectively holding 107,200 ETH; the other wallet transferred approximately 23,100 ETH to Tornado Cash on July 23.Currently, approximately $9.2 million in stolen funds has been frozen. The relevant funds had previously been transferred through Tornado Cash in August, and unfreezing and return still require cooperation with legal procedures. The Drift Foundation will transfer all assets recovered through freezing, bounties, or law enforcement channels into the DFX recovery pool, and is evaluating the subsequent path of the DRIFT token within the broader ecosystem. In addition, the foundation has partnered with Bybit to launch a public bounty program, offering a 10% bounty on successfully recovered funds.

An on-chain whale spent $1.49 million purchasing STONK, with unrealized profits reaching $9.97 million.

According to monitoring by Arkham (@arkham), on-chain address @pointfarmcap has cumulatively invested $1.49 million across 1,896 buy transactions to build a position in STONK since early August this year, when the token’s market cap was just approximately $2.65 million. STONK’s market cap has since risen to $222 million, with the address’s holdings now valued at $9.97 million. Having cashed out only $916,000, the position reflects an unrealized profit exceeding 10x.