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DefiLlama Founder Analyzes Three Possible Resolution Paths for the Kelp DAO Incident and Corresponding Potential Bad Debt Sizes

According to a post by 0xngmi, founder of DefiLlama, following the hack of KelpDAO, Aave is facing severe pressure in handling bad debt. Currently, there are three potential solutions: First, socializing the loss across all users—this would result in an 18.5% impairment for users, generating approximately $216 million in bad debt. Aave’s Umbrella Insurance could cover $55 million, and the treasury could contribute an additional $85 million, leaving a shortfall of roughly $76 million. Second, executing a “rug pull” on rsETH holders on L2 chains—this would generate approximately $341 million in bad debt, with Arbitrum, Mantle, and Base markets suffering the heaviest losses. Third, returning assets to holders based on a pre-attack snapshot—but this approach is extremely operationally challenging, and even after Umbrella Insurance coverage, an estimated $91 million in losses would remain. Additionally, some suggest confiscating the hacker’s collateral to offset part of the bad debt. Meanwhile, Aave’s OG Security Module still holds approximately $300 million worth of AAVE tokens; applying a 20% reduction would provide an additional ~$60 million in loss coverage.

Hyperbridge: Losses from the vulnerability increased to approximately $2.5 million; some funds have been traced to Binance.

According to an official disclosure by Hyperbridge, the losses from the Token Gateway vulnerability incident on April 13 have been revised upward from an initial estimate of $237,000 to approximately $2.5 million. The increase stems primarily from losses incurred in incentive pools on Ethereum, Base, BNB Chain, and Arbitrum. The attacker extracted roughly 245 ETH from related contracts, then bypassed the MMR proof verification mechanism by forging cross-chain messages, minting 1 billion bridged DOT tokens and dumping them onto illiquid markets. Currently, some of the stolen funds have been traced on-chain to Binance. Hyperbridge is collaborating with Binance’s compliance team and law enforcement agencies to investigate the incident. Polkadot-native DOT and products such as Intent Gateway remain unaffected. The Token Gateway and bridged DOT contracts on the four affected EVM chains remain suspended. An external audit of the patched MMR verification logic is underway, and bridging functionality will be restored upon completion of the audit.