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Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution

Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)

21Shares Executive: Bitcoin Could Hit $100,000 This Year as Institutions Accelerate Entry

Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Officer of 21Shares, stated that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, reinforcing Bitcoin's core position in institutional asset allocation, even as the price remains volatile below the $80,000 mark. Adrian Fritz pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed nearly $2 billion in funds, sourced from retail investors, institutions, and hedge funds engaging in arbitrage and options strategies. He believes that as traditional asset management institutions like Morgan Stanley accelerate their deployment, crypto assets are being more broadly incorporated into multi-asset portfolio allocations. Bitcoin's current daily trading volume has exceeded $50 billion, with liquidity levels approaching those of large-cap tech stocks like Nvidia. The ETF mechanism simultaneously provides primary and secondary market liquidity, gradually granting it "institutional-grade asset" attributes.Although the market remains under pressure from macroeconomic conditions and interest rate environments, Adrian Fritz believes that ETF inflows have shifted from being speculation-driven to structural demand. He predicts that driven by factors such as improving geopolitical conditions, sustained capital inflows, and short covering, Bitcoin could challenge the $100,000 threshold this year. Meanwhile, differentiation among altcoins is intensifying, with the market shifting towards an asset selection logic that places greater emphasis on fundamentals and cash flow. (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $89.6754 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $112 million in net outflows

According to SoSoValue data, as of yesterday (Eastern Time, April 28), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net outflows of $89.6754 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow was the ARKB ETF from Ark Invest and 21Shares, with a net inflow of $41.2021 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow for ARKB stands at $1.608 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow was BlackRock's IBIT ETF, with a net outflow of $112 million. As of now, IBIT's historical total net inflow is $78.118 million.As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $100.390 billion, with the ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to Bitcoin's total market cap) at 6.56%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $58.211 billion.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $23.38 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $23.38 million. By product: BlackRock’s staking-enabled ETHB saw a single-day inflow of $32.25 million, serving as the primary contributor; BlackRock’s ETHA experienced outflows of $7.71 million, and Fidelity’s FETH saw outflows of $1.16 million; Bitwise, 21Shares, Invesco, Franklin, VanEck, and Grayscale’s respective products all registered zero net flows for the day.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $75.94 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $75.94 million. Fidelity’s FETH led with an outflow of $51.3 million, followed by BlackRock’s ETHA at $20.95 million, Grayscale’s ETHE at $10.9 million, 21Shares’ TETH at $9.24 million, and Bitwise’s ETHW at $3.31 million. Only Grayscale’s mini ETF ETH posted a net inflow of $19.76 million; all other products remained flat.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Saw Net Inflows of $996 Million Last Week, Marking Three Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $996 million during last week's trading sessions (April 13 to April 17, Eastern Time).The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflows last week was BlackRock's IBIT, with weekly net inflows of $906 million. IBIT's cumulative historical net inflows now stand at $64.63 billion. Following that was the Ark & 21Shares ETF ARKB, with weekly net inflows of $98.5036 million. ARKB's cumulative historical net inflows have reached $1.55 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflows last week was Fidelity's FBTC, with weekly net outflows of $104 million. FBTC's cumulative historical net inflows currently amount to $11.01 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $101.45 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (the proportion of ETF market value relative to Bitcoin's total market cap) has reached 6.55%, with cumulative historical net inflows totaling $57.74 billion.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $127 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $127 million—among the highest single-day inflows recently. Fidelity’s ETF ($FETH) led with $84.13 million, followed by BlackRock’s ($ETHA) at $30.8 million. Grayscale’s mini ETF ($ETH) saw $5.76 million in net inflows, 21Shares’ ($TETH) $3.64 million, BlackRock’s staking version ($ETHB) $1.25 million, and Bitwise’s ($ETHW) $1.91 million. All other products reported zero net inflows for the day.

21Shares Updates Hyperliquid ETF Filing, Ticker: THYP

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart’s disclosure on X, 21Shares US has updated its Hyperliquid ETF filing, with the ETF ticker symbol THYP. The filing does not yet disclose management fee information. This filing update is believed to be in response to comments and feedback from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $9.44 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $9.44 million. By product: BlackRock’s staking-based ETHB saw net inflows of $5.78 million; Grayscale’s mini ETH saw net inflows of $5.15 million; and Fidelity’s FETH saw net inflows of $3.93 million. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s ETHA experienced net outflows of $4.07 million, and 21Shares’ TETH saw net outflows of $1.35 million. All other products reported zero net flows for the day.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $106 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $106 million, a significant increase compared to the previous day (April 8), when net inflows stood at $13.84 million. Specifically: BlackRock’s ETHA saw net inflows of $90.94 million; BlackRock’s staking version ETHB recorded net inflows of $13.67 million; Grayscale’s mini ETH ETF registered net inflows of $9.67 million; 21Shares’ TETH experienced net outflows of $5.53 million; Franklin’s EZET posted net outflows of $1.68 million; Grayscale’s ETHE reported net outflows of $0.9 million; and Fidelity’s FETH, Bitwise’s ETHW, Invesco’s QETH, and VanEck’s ETHV all recorded zero net inflows for the day.

Bitcoin call options with a $80,000 strike price exceed $1.6 billion in open interest, as market participants bet on a confluence of price reversal and rate-cut expectations.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is undergoing a notable shift: the $80,000 call option on Deribit has become the most actively traded, with open interest exceeding $1.6 billion—surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put option (which held approximately $1.41 billion in open interest). Analysts suggest that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has driven oil prices lower, easing inflation expectations and potentially strengthening market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts—thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin. Additionally, asset management firm 21Shares stated that, against the backdrop of sustained ETF inflows and rising institutional holdings, Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 by the end of Q2—if geopolitical tensions ease further and the regulatory environment improves. However, risks remain: the current ceasefire is fragile, and any escalation in Middle Eastern conflict could trigger a rebound in oil prices, dampening market risk appetite and thereby capping Bitcoin’s upside potential.

Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $13.84 million.

According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $13.84 million. The breakdown by issuer is as follows: BlackRock’s staked ETHB saw a net inflow of $44.3 million; 21Shares’ TETH recorded a net inflow of $1.98 million; BlackRock’s ETHA experienced a net outflow of $20.67 million; Grayscale’s ETHE posted a net outflow of $6.11 million; Grayscale’s Mini ETH had a net outflow of $5.66 million; Fidelity’s FETH, Bitwise’s ETHW, Invesco’s QETH, Franklin’s EZET, and VanEck’s ETHV all registered zero net flow for the day.