HTX DeepThink: Beyond Policy Rates, Long-End Yields Are Becoming a Key Constraint on Crypto Valuation
HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out in her analysis that the core contradiction in the current macro market has shifted from "when the Fed will cut rates" to "whether the Fed needs to raise rates again." Warsh attempted to reduce the impact of single-month data on policy, but since his policy framework has not been fully understood by the market, July and August inflation data have instead become the key variables determining September policy expectations. If core CPI remains at 0.2% or below, the market will re-trade inflation decline and policy pause; if it consecutively exceeds expectations, the Fed will face a binary choice of "raise rates or lose credibility."
