Deutsche Bank: Gold in Fifth Explosive Phase Since 1979, Fair Value Points to $4,700 to $5,100

According to TechFlow Research, a Deutsche Bank research report on August 13 pointed out that gold is currently in its fifth explosive price phase since 1979, which started in August 2024 and has lasted about 24 months so far, with a peak BSADF statistic of 3.29. The superposition of four factors—central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and interest rate cut expectations—is driving this round of market performance. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the core difference between this round and the four historical explosive phases (the 1980 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the 2011 European debt crisis, and the 2020 pandemic shock) lies in the fact that the driving force has shifted from inflation or crisis-driven to the structural behavior of central bank gold purchases. The research report predicts that the baseline scenario for gold's fair value points to USD 4,700 to 5,100 per ounce. The basic model shows the current fair price is about USD 4,700, representing about 20% upside potential compared to the current price. Central bank gold purchases since Q3 2022 have grown 6 times compared to the 2016 to 2021 levels; about half of official gold purchases are not reported in IMF data, and this portion of "unreported demand" remains at a high level. Global gold ETF 30-day rolling inflows are about 1.5 million ounces, and Asian buyers continue to increase holdings. The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, but the shortage of physical silver is easing, and correction signals are unclear.