Binance Research: Four On-Chain Signals Point to Supply Contraction, BTC Selling Pressure Nearing Exhaustion

According to Binance Research (@BinanceResearch), four on-chain metrics currently converge to indicate a sustained tightening of Bitcoin supply and an exhaustion of selling pressure: ① Nearly 60% of BTC supply has remained unmoved for over one year, with the supply dormancy rate holding at a historical high; ② The SLRV ratio is deep in its historical bottom range, indicating long-term holders dominate supply while short-term speculators have largely exited the market; ③ Exchange BTC balances have declined from their COVID-era peak of 17.6% to the current 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently flowing out of exchanges—resulting in the available seller supply hitting a six-year low; ④ BTC short-term holder MVRV has remained persistently below 1.0 since November 2024, continuously eroding selling pressure; recently, it has rebounded above 1.0, signaling that short-term holders are beginning to rebuild unrealized profits. Binance Research believes this combination of signals closely aligns with historical cycle bottom characteristics.