Morgan Stanley: iPhone 18 Lead Times Flat, Demand Better Than Feared

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley research report dated September 16, 2026, indicates that four days after the pre-sale of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max opened, the global delivery cycle stands at 2 to 4 weeks, broadly consistent with the same period last year. Apple’s H2 production volume for the Pro and Pro Max models reached 71 million units, compared to 60 million units last year, marking an 18% year-over-year increase. The delivery cycle for the Pro Max in the United States is 22.5 days, unchanged from last year; in Japan, it is 29.5 days, extending by 5.5 days from last year; and in China, it is 27 days, shortened by 3.5 days compared to last year. The global average delivery cycle for the Pro Max is 25 days, 0.4 days longer than last year. Morgan Stanley believes that flat delivery cycles alongside a substantial increase in production volumes suggest demand may be stronger than market concerns. The firm maintains its Overweight rating on Apple with a price target of $360, against a current price of $331.34, implying an upside potential of approximately 8.7%. Morgan Stanley advises monitoring whether Apple adjusts its production schedule in mid-to-late October as a key indicator to verify demand strength.