Morgan Stanley: Silver Lake in Talks to Acquire Workday, Software Stock Valuations Cheap Enough for PE to Step In Again

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's August 16 research report noted that Reuters reported PE giant Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday, driving a collective surge in the software sector last Friday. Workday has a market cap of approximately $50 billion. If acquired at a 30% to 40% premium, the valuation would be approximately 5x 2027 P/S ratio and 16x 2027 free cash flow, both below historical averages. Morgan Stanley believes this indicates software stocks may have become cheap enough to entice PE firms to re-enter the market; if the deal materializes, it will boost sector valuations. The report also noted that while open-source models suppress token prices, hyperscalers can still maintain 20% to 60% ROIC on their proprietary compute. Investor surveys show 52% expect increased divergence within software stocks, with bulls numbering approximately twice that of bears. Morgan Stanley expects Cursor's annualized ARR to reach $8 billion by year-end and $33 billion by 2030, maintaining an Underweight rating on Netcompany. PE returning to acquisitions, cost layering of open-source models, and investor confidence repair—these three signals indicate software sector valuations have been compressed to a critical point.