UBS: Stablecoin market cap set to reach $1.2 trillion by 2031, digital assets heading mainstream

According to Chaoxiang research, UBS’s September 28, 2026 report indicates the initiation of coverage on digital asset strategies, projecting the stablecoin market capitalization to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2031, alongside real-world payment volumes of roughly $3 trillion. Stablecoin issuers hold approximately $175 billion in short-term US Treasury-related exposures. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that a $3.5 billion inflow into stablecoins reduces the yield on 3-month US Treasuries by approximately 0.7 basis points, decreasing it by about 4 basis points over a 10-day period. Tokenization can unlock approximately $2.46 trillion in annualized repo trading volume. By 2030, AI agents may facilitate approximately $2 trillion in global C2B e-commerce, with stablecoins accounting for about $56 billion of that volume. UBS believes that as digital assets achieve mainstream adoption, their overall impact on the financial sector will range from neutral to mildly positive. Sectors such as payments and fintech, exchanges, and asset management are assessed as mildly positive, while banking remains neutral. Allocation strategies center on three core themes: stablecoins, tokenization, and agent commerce. Increasing compliance costs particularly favor large-scale operators.