Morgan Stanley: Memory Chip Cycle Slows But AI Demand and LTA Reshape Long-Term Value

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's latest research report in August indicates that the Q3 DRAM contract price quarter-over-quarter increase has fallen from an expected 20% to 15%, memory module inventory has risen to 12.5 weeks, and signs of weakness have emerged in China's consumer electronics demand. However, Morgan Stanley believes this is merely a normal cyclical slowdown, not a trend reversal. The capex growth rate of the four major cloud vendors was adjusted up from 14% to 29%, and AI demand remains strong. Samsung aims to place 60% to 70% of its capacity under long-term agreements, SK Hynix has completed LTA negotiations with approximately 10 clients, and Micron's 16 agreements cover approximately $100 billion in minimum revenue. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on Samsung and SK Hynix, with target prices of 381,000 won and 2.6 million won respectively, implying 74% to 84% upside potential. Samsung's current stock price corresponds to an expected P/E ratio of about 5x for 2026, while SK Hynix is about 5.8x. Morgan Stanley believes LTAs are changing industry earnings visibility; the market has not yet assigned a premium to LTA-supported earnings. If LTAs verify downside protection, the memory valuation system may be reshaped.