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Data: Polymarket Monthly Visits Reach 43.1 Million, Surpassing Mainstream Financial Apps
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted data revealing that over the past month, Polymarket's website traffic reached 43.1 million visits (according to Similarweb data), surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech applications globally. Nick Tomaino believes that the core reason for Polymarket's growth is not marketing investment, but rather its value primarily as a "source of information," where users hope to better understand the real world through prediction markets. Polymarket currently dominates the on-chain prediction market sector; the transparency and global accessibility brought by the on-chain architecture are key to achieving the long-term goal of "better information and more truth." However, Polymarket's U.S. application is still in the early stages, but the product and business model are gradually maturing and beginning to enter an accelerated execution phase.
Kalshi
Mainstream
Polymarket
Reach
Reach
Situational Awareness Crisis Reflection: 1confirmation Founder Says "Smart Money" Is Repeating the Same Mistakes
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted comments on the AI investment fund Situational Awareness crisis incident, stating that recent discussions surrounding the fund reflect a long-standing problem in the investment circle: many so-called "elites" and "smart money" lack basic risk judgment capabilities. Tomaino stated that he does not know all the details of this incident and does not wish to comment on the specific liquidation process, but he believes a deeper problem is that many investors are driven by wealth and attention, gradually ignoring facts, risks, and judgment of others. Citing the FTX collapse as an example, he noted that many people could detect abnormalities after brief contact with the founder, but a large amount of "smart money" chose to continue investing and endorse it due to chasing returns and market narratives. Tomaino pointed out that a similar phenomenon occurred with the founders of Situational Awareness and the investment circle supporting the fund: the same type of investors chased grand narratives, provided funding, and drove promotion, but ultimately the fund fell into distress due to high-risk bets and market reversals. Industry participants should learn lessons from this and avoid repeating the cycle of "chasing hotspots—ignoring risks—collectively stepping on mines."
circle
FTX
1confirmation Founder: The Crypto Industry Needs to Fuse "Faith Builders" with "Hype Speculators"
According to Odaily, 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino recently discussed the marketing challenges faced by long-termists in the crypto industry. He argues that true builders need to understand and attract Degen users while maintaining authenticity, rather than criticizing speculative culture from a high horse. He has been trying to solve this problem for the past 15 years, often with little success. He admits that users holding different asset positions might perceive him as condescending, but he himself engaged heavily in speculation and suffered losses in his youth, so he does not look down on the Degen crowd.Nick Tomaino believes that many truly predatory participants in the crypto industry are precisely those who look down on Degens, making it easier for them to arbitrage these users. He suggests that current crypto market participants can be divided into two main camps:The first group: True believers, represented by the leadership of Ethereum and Coinbase. These teams have weathered multiple market cycles, continuously building new products and infrastructure. They do not chase short-term traffic or capital, but focus more on long-term value.However, the problem with this camp is that it can sometimes be too idealistic, failing to fully participate in high-heat scenarios like Memecoin trading or perpetual contracts, thus showing relative weakness in marketing and user acquisition.The second group: Hype men, including some altcoin project teams, executives, and KOLs. This group excels at generating attention, attracting Degen users, and capturing market hotspots.Tomaino believes that some participants in this group are more focused on short-term capital and traffic, lacking genuine innovation. They merely package themselves with industry narratives without actually practicing long-term value creation. Hype men are better at capturing attention and trading demand, while the faithful have stronger authenticity and long-term credibility—but both have shortcomings. Ultimately, these two cultures will converge. The key lies in whether long-term builders can better understand and attract Degen users, and whether traffic drivers can shift from short-term hype to creating genuine long-term value. The future direction of the crypto industry will depend on which side can influence the other—whether long-termists can steer more speculative users toward construction, or whether hype players can gradually transition to a healthier, more positive-sum ecosystem.
Coinbase
Ethereum
Fuse
Fuse
Hype
Kollect
1confirmation Founder: Next Wave of Crypto User Growth May Be Driven by RWA Tokenization
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino stated on platform X that bringing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain will become an important direction for driving the next phase of the crypto industry's development and is expected to lead to mass consumer adoption. The core value of RWA tokenization lies in enabling global users to access asset classes that were previously difficult to obtain. "Global accessibility" has always been one of the most attractive features of the crypto industry and a key reason for the success of crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Nick Tomaino believes that crypto assets which drive new behaviors and are built on concepts beyond mere monetary value will continue to exist long-term. However, as the market gradually realizes that the cost of creating tokens is close to zero and the model of solely relying on token issuance to drive price appreciation is unsustainable, the growth cycle for many "hype-driven tokens" is ending. The future market will enter a new growth phase driven by tokens backed by real assets. Currently, stablecoins have become the most mature use case for RWAs, and over the next year, the tokenization of assets such as stocks, commodities, government bonds, corporate bonds, and real estate is expected to accelerate further.Nick Tomaino stated that tokenized physical collectibles (such as sports cards and jerseys) could become one of the most promising directions for building and investing in RWAs today. As the speculative-driven token cycle gradually recedes, on-chain assets backed by real value and with practical use cases will become key to attracting the next wave of users into the crypto market.
ALLO
Bitcoin
Ethereum
RWA Inc.
Wave
Xend Finance