News linked to this event type.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has proposed "two thoughts" on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, emphasizing that policy effectiveness depends on initial conditions and the manner in which forward guidance is used. The first point is that "initial conditions matter," meaning policy evaluation should be based on the current state of the economy rather than historical averages. The second point concerns the role of "forward guidance." Waller believes that forward guidance can, in some cases, accelerate policy transmission by influencing market expectations to alter financial conditions in advance. However, if it is too rigid or lacks flexibility, it may instead undermine policy effectiveness or even delay necessary policy adjustments.Waller emphasized that when multiple economic scenarios exist, the "average path" cannot simply be used as the basis for policy guidance. Policymaking must maintain adaptability and flexibility to respond to different situations.
According to CNBC, Swedish payment giant Klarna has submitted an application to U.S. federal and state regulators to establish an FDIC-insured bank subsidiary "Klarna Bank USA" in Utah, enabling Klarna to conduct loans, deposits, and broader financial services through its own banking system. Klarna launched the stablecoin KlarnaUSD at the end of last year and is reportedly collaborating with Privy, a wallet infrastructure platform under Stripe, to co-develop a crypto wallet aimed at mainstream users.
the Bank of Korea has disclosed in a written document submitted to the National Assembly that the rapid expansion of single-stock leveraged ETFs targeting Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may be amplifying structural "herding" and volatility risks in the Korean stock market. The combined market capitalization and trading volume share of these two companies in the Korean stock market have risen sharply, with the market cap share increasing from approximately 36.1% at the end of last year to over 55% recently, and the trading volume share jumping from 27.9% to 63.5%.South Korea's financial regulatory authorities have also expressed similar concerns, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring of the potential impact of these products on market stability and systemic risk. Under changing market sentiment, single-stock leveraged ETFs may exacerbate unidirectional capital flows. If market trends reverse, combined with intraday rebalancing and derivative hedging mechanisms, this could further amplify price volatility. (Etoday)
Odaily, July 5th - The cryptocurrency market continued its stabilization trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, recording its strongest weekly performance since March. This rally was primarily fueled by declining inflation expectations. The breakeven inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has dropped notably recently. The two-year indicator has fallen below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, while long-term inflation expectations have also weakened. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, returning to levels close to those seen before the geopolitical conflicts in February, prompting the market to reassess inflation pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory.Some analysts suggest that if the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakens, it could further lower resistance for Bitcoin’s upward movement, as the two typically exhibit a negative correlation. However, other viewpoints caution that services inflation remains sticky, and falling oil prices do not necessarily imply a reversal of the overall inflation trend. Monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher for longer" stance.The next key milestone for the market is the US June CPI data due on July 14th, which could serve as a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets. (CoinDesk)
Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, plans to launch a cryptocurrency wallet and digital custody services, with the earliest launch expected in December. The services will be integrated into the "Sberbank Online" and "SberInvestments" platforms, pending the official implementation of Russia's forthcoming "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Law" in September.The bill is expected to establish a licensing framework for transactions, custody, fiat exchange, and cross-border settlements involving crypto assets, while also allowing eligible investors to participate in trading within set limits.Sberbank stated that users will be able to access authorized crypto assets directly within the bank's application, and a digital asset custody system will also be launched for token storage and ledger management.Against the backdrop of advancing regulations, financial institutions including the Moscow Exchange and VTB are also accelerating their deployment in digital asset-related businesses, as Russia's financial system gradually opens up to the compliant crypto market. (CoinDesk)
the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professional Association stated that representatives from regulatory bodies, including Executive Director of the SFC's Intermediaries Division Keith Yee and Deputy Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Joseph Chan, discussed several specific policy changes. These include: canceling the previous 10% minimum exemption for virtual asset management, and implementing new regulations effective immediately without a transitional period.Furthermore, the SFC indicated that it has communicated with the Hong Kong Securities and Investment Institute (HKSI). In the future, the examination for virtual asset platform practitioners will be separated from the existing courses, and examination fees will be lowered, aligning with the costs of current papers such as Paper 2 and Paper 3. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professional Association also called for a clear delineation between technology services and regulated activities, suggesting that the SFC establish a more transparent approval timeline and phased reference framework. (Sing Tao Daily)
Coinbase sent an AI-generated news alert claiming the Norwegian national football team had defeated Brazil 3-2 before the World Cup match had even started. CEO Brian Armstrong has launched an investigation, and Coinbase stated that updates have been implemented to prevent future instances of inaccurate AI-generated information. The error comes as Coinbase is advancing its prediction market and "everything exchange" features, including an AI advisor and stock options. (CoinDesk).
According to The Block, Ripple announced it has obtained full MiCA CASP (Crypto-Asset Service Provider) authorization issued by the Luxembourg financial regulator CSSF, allowing it to legally provide crypto-asset services in all 30 countries of the European Economic Area.
South Korea's media regulatory body will give Polymarket a chance to respond before deciding whether to take corrective action against its prediction market platform. The regulator is reviewing whether Polymarket's services constitute illegal gambling, which is prohibited under South Korean law. (The Block)
the Brazilian Association of Crypto-Economics (ABcripto) has requested the Brazilian Central Bank to suspend a proposal that would introduce a 24-hour delay for large stablecoin transfers. The association opposes the Central Bank's previous recommendation to impose a 24-hour lockup window for stablecoin transfers exceeding $10,000, stating that the measure would impact transparent market participants using regulated entities, while illicit actors would remain unaffected. ABcripto's members include Binance, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Tether.The Brazilian Central Bank cited Chainalysis' crypto crime report, noting that illegal transaction volumes reached an all-time high in 2025. ABcripto President Julia Rosin stated that illegal actors typically avoid regulated institutions, preferring platforms that do not require identity verification, mixers, cross-chain bridges, and other less transparent structures.ABcripto also stated that the lockup measure could undermine the near-instant settlement use case for stablecoins and push users towards unregulated service providers. Currently, the Brazilian Congress is discussing specific regulations for stablecoins, and the Brazilian Central Bank plans to classify stablecoins as electronic money, rather than under the current digital asset classification. (Bitcoin.com News).
On-chain investigator ZachXBT stated that unless the case occurred recently, individual victim losses exceed $250,000, the jurisdiction is actionable, the incident occurred on a blockchain he supports, and it does not involve Meme tokens or prediction markets, he will not review or respond.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Industry Professional Association met with representatives from the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Securities and Futures Commission on July 3 to exchange views on issues such as new virtual asset policies, the licensing regime, operating costs, and the Virtual Asset Platform Practitioner Examination (CVAP). During the meeting, the Association expressed concerns regarding CVAP examination authorization and system transparency. The SFC responded that it would promote the separation of courses and examinations and reduce examination fees.
Odaily Odaily: Lighter founder and CEO Vladimir Novakovski posted on X: "As the United States celebrates its 250th anniversary, I am proud to have been building Lighter here from the very beginning. This year, I have also started doing my small part — serving as a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee."Odaily Note: The Innovation Advisory Committee was established to advise the CFTC on complex issues at the intersection of technology, law, policy, and finance.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Clarity Act failed to be signed within the previously expected timeframe. As Congress approaches its summer recess, pressure is mounting for the bill to be enacted within 2026. However, several observers following the legislative process remain cautiously optimistic about its passage within the year, believing that current key coordination efforts are still ongoing, including the consolidation of content between the Senate Agriculture Committee and Banking Committee versions.
According to the Financial Times, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) stated that a "race" for artificial intelligence regulation is emerging in the financial sector and called for new regulatory powers to strengthen oversight of large models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini.
according to rwa.xyz data, Securitize Corp. currently holds the top position in tokenized stocks with $270.6 million in on-chain equity. Its stock ticker, SECZ, began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on July 2. On the same day, Securitize tokenized its own common stock on Solana and Avalanche through its regulated platform. The distributed value of the tokenized stock sector stands at $1.96 billion, up 31.84% in 30 days; monthly transfer volume reached $8.47 billion, up 92.77%; total holders reached 403,650, up 17.18%; monthly active addresses decreased by 84.37% over the same period. (Bitcoin.com News).
White House advisor Patrick Witt stated in May that he hoped the Clarity Act would be signed into law on July 4th, but the bill did not meet this deadline. CoinDesk reports that the biggest risk now actually comes from the House of Representatives. Recently, the U.S. House of Representatives has faced resistance in advancing multiple agendas, including important bills like the budget proposal. Market concerns are growing that declining legislative efficiency could further slow down the progress of the CLARITY Act.Additionally, the market believes that August 7th (the last working day before the Senate's summer recess) will become an important time window for advancing the bill. (CoinDesk).
According to Red Star News, an investigation report leaked from Myanmar fraud parks shows that global telecom fraud is accelerating towards an "AI industrialization + cross-border encrypted payment" system. Fraud networks complete fund flows through cryptocurrencies and use large model-based automated tools for multi-language script generation, identity disguise, and emotional manipulation. According to investigation analysis, these systems extensively utilize OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini at the functional level to support "scaled social fraud," while on the funding end, rapid laundering and transfer are achieved through on-chain payments and cross-border channels, forming a dual-layer structure of "AI customer acquisition + encrypted settlement," enabling the fraud industry to possess high automation and cross-national diffusion capabilities. Additionally, Musk's Starlink has become the top network service provider for Myanmar fraud parks, with US ISP service providers carrying nearly one-fifth of the park's traffic. Regarding the relevant allegations, OpenAI responded that fraudsters' use of ChatGPT is highly similar to that of ordinary users, making identification difficult, but approximately 100,000 suspicious accounts are banned monthly through behavior pattern recognition and risk control systems. Google stated its AI models have established safety guardrails and emphasized commitment to "responsible AI development" to limit tools from being used for illegal purposes such as fraud.
the prediction market industry, represented by Kalshi, is dealing with legal disputes in multiple US states, arguing in a series of court hearings this week that state regulators should not have jurisdiction over the matter. These legal challenges are progressing in Nevada and Michigan, with live arguments taking place in Minnesota, and the case could potentially be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Meanwhile, North Carolina is close to imposing a state tax on prediction market revenue. (CoinDesk).
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.