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The Investment Advisory Committee under the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong released a special article on market forecasting: The public should reflect on the nature of investment.

The Investment Committee under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a document titled “Understanding the Nature of Investment through Prediction Markets,” which states: Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Trading activities or contracts in prediction markets are not investment products. Key features include: events subject to prediction, trading mechanisms, trading prices, and payouts. Before considering any investment, investors should carefully consider the investment’s value, asset allocation, and regulatory safeguards. The Investment Committee notes that members of the public engaging in trading activities on prediction markets are not protected by the Securities and Futures Ordinance or any regulations enforced by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Should problems arise, redress may be difficult—or even impossible—to obtain.

Morpho CEO: Engaged with multiple institutions; their interest in DeFi will not disappear

, Morpho CEO Paul Frambot posted on X that over the past week, he has communicated with several large institutions to understand their views on the current DeFi landscape. The core conclusions are as follows.First, institutional interest will not disappear. The reason is simple: distribution channels will not disappear — massive amounts of assets under management (AUM), payments, and lending businesses are moving on-chain. Almost all fintech companies aim to be fully on-chain. For institutions, this is not a question of "whether," but a matter of "necessity."Second, they have lost trust in the pool/hub model. Institutions and distributors want to control everything, including control over code, control over risk, and control over compliance. At the same time, they also desire flexibility — the ability to isolate their own operations and connect to a global liquidity network that is compatible with them.

CertiK Officially Announces Attendance at Consensus Miami: Driving Web3 Trust Upgrade Through Security

Odaily, According to sources, CertiK has confirmed its participation as a sponsor at Consensus Miami 2026. As the world's largest Web3 security company, CertiK plans to deeply engage in industry dialogue and ecosystem building through a series of activities.During the conference, CertiK will host and co-host two side events, inviting global founders, technical professionals, and industry representatives to discuss topics such as Web3 security, AI applications, and on-chain infrastructure. Founder and CEO Ronghui Gu will also participate in relevant roundtable forums to explore security and transparency in blockchain and financial infrastructure. Additionally, CertiK will set up a booth at the venue and conduct multiple fireside chats with partners, focusing on industry pain points including institutional adoption, risk visualization, and Web3 compliance implementation.Organized by CoinDesk, Consensus Miami 2026 will be held from May 5 to 7 in Miami, USA. It is expected to bring together over 20,000 industry participants globally, making it one of the most influential conferences in the crypto and Web3 industry.

France Prosecutes 88 People, Including 10 Minors, in Connection with 12 Cryptocurrency “Wrenching” Attacks

According to Cointelegraph, Vanessa Perrée, France’s National Prosecutor for Organized Crime, stated that French law enforcement has charged at least 88 individuals—including 10 minors—in connection with 12 “crypto heists” targeting cryptocurrency holders; 75 of those charged are currently in pre-trial detention. Such incidents typically involve violent methods—including home invasions and kidnappings—to coerce victims into surrendering assets stored in their crypto wallets. Perrée noted that some suspects are linked to multiple cases, and investigations have uncovered an organized criminal network behind these crimes. Official records from French authorities indicate 18 such cases in 2024, rising to 67 in 2025, and reaching 47 thus far in 2026.

Trump's AI Jesus portrait may be the main cause of the White House Correspondents' Dinner attack; the suspect quoted scripture calling it an "Antichrist"

According to information disclosed by journalist Ken Klippenstein, the White House Correspondents' Dinner attack suspect Cole Allen's actions may have been directed at the AI-generated Jesus portrait released by Trump.Records show that Cole Allen, as a Protestant, once referenced the description of the "Antichrist" from the Book of Revelation regarding the image on social media. Although Trump claimed that Cole Allen hated Christians, his manifesto indicates that Cole Allen was actually using biblical teachings to justify his violent actions, arguing that remaining silent while others are oppressed violates his faith. Cole Allen graduated from Caltech and previously worked on developing precision hardware involving drones and military targeting systems. The FBI is currently investigating whether he acted alone.

HTX DeepThink: Rate Cut Expectations Delayed to Post-September, Cryptocurrency Market Structure Divergence Intensifies

Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.

Trump TRUMP Luncheon Speech: Only Expressed Hope for the CLARITY Act to Pass

on April 25 local time, Trump attended a TRUMP luncheon at Mar-a-Lago and delivered a speech lasting approximately 45 minutes, covering topics such as the cryptocurrency industry, the war in Iran, and Joe Biden.White House correspondent Sander Lutz stated that aside from expressing hope that the CLARITY Act would pass and that he would sign it immediately, Trump did not reveal many other specific details. Some industry insiders had initially hoped he would bring more news about this bill, which is significant to the crypto sector.

South Korean digital bank K Bank partners with Ripple to advance blockchain-based cross-border remittance technology validation

According to Insight Korea, South Korea’s digital bank K Bank has established a strategic partnership with blockchain company Ripple to advance the validation of next-generation blockchain-based cross-border remittance technologies. The two parties will focus on evaluating optimization opportunities in remittance speed, cost structure, and transaction transparency through Ripple’s Global Payments Network and infrastructure. Current collaboration includes a digital wallet proof-of-concept, joint development of cross-border remittance models, and expansion into the digital assets domain. The ongoing Phase II testing simulates connecting banks’ internal systems with customer accounts and tests on-chain fund transfers to the United Arab Emirates and Thailand. K Bank is also evaluating Ripple’s SaaS-based digital wallet, Palisade, to enhance compliance and deployment efficiency.

Former IMF Chief Economist: Easing of Stablecoin Regulation Combined with Bank Deregulation Could Trigger a Systemic Financial Crisis

According to Caixin, Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that the Trump administration’s push for financial deregulation—particularly the relaxation of bank capital requirements and regulatory transparency—is significantly increasing the risk of a future systemic financial crisis in the United States. Rogoff pointed out that one key justification currently advanced for deregulation is to enable traditional banks to remain innovative and competitive against cryptocurrencies—especially U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins. If cryptocurrency regulation is simultaneously relaxed, combined with deregulation of the traditional financial system, it could trigger a “dual deregulation” risk, ultimately leading to systemic collapse. Although a full-scale banking crisis may not erupt in the short term, the associated risks have clearly risen, and the regulatory balance between stablecoins and the traditional banking system has become a critical vulnerability.

Senator Tillis Ends Months-Long Obstruction, Clearing the Way for Waller’s Fed Chairmanship

According to The Wall Street Journal, North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis said Sunday local time that he would support the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, thereby clearing the final major hurdle for Trump’s chosen successor to Powell. Tillis had refused for months to vote in favor of Warsh, stating he would not advance any Fed nominee’s confirmation while the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Powell remained ongoing—calling the probe an attack on the central bank’s independence. However, that investigation appears to have concluded last Friday. (Jin10)

U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill Faces Roadblocks; Critical Timeline May Be in May

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.

Robin Hanson, “one of the founding theorists of prediction markets,” opposes Kalshi and Polymarket’s blanket bans on insider trading.

According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.

Vietnam Plans to Launch a Cryptocurrency Asset Pilot Project, Transforming Unregulated Crypto Trading into a Domestically Regulated Market

The Vietnamese government plans to launch a five-year cryptocurrency asset pilot program in Q2 2026, shifting previously offshore-dominated, unregulated crypto trading into an onshore, regulated market. Currently, Vietnamese traders’ annual cryptocurrency transaction volume stands at $22–23 billion, exceeding $600 million daily. The new pilot will only allow participation by locally registered institutions that meet stringent capital and compliance requirements, and all traded assets must be backed by real-world assets and settled in Vietnamese đồng (VND).

Trump appears to shift stance on US soldier who bet on Maduro's capture; some allies support pardon

the U.S. Department of Justice has filed charges against U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accusing him of using classified intelligence to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the U.S. raid on Venezuela, resulting in illegal profits of over $400,000.According to the latest disclosure by CNN, Trump appears to have shifted his stance on the matter. Upon learning that the soldier had bet on Maduro's downfall, Trump compared the situation to baseball legend Pete Rose betting on his own team to win, downplaying the response. Trump stated: "It's like Rose betting on his own team to win. If he bet on his own team to lose, that would be bad, but he bet on them to win. I will look into it." Additionally, given Trump's support for Rose, at least several of Trump's allies have indicated that Trump should pardon the soldier. (CNN)

Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference

Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.

US Department of Justice Sentences Member of $263 Million Crypto Fraud Scheme to 70 Months in Prison, Involving Social Engineering Fraud and Lavish Money Laundering

: The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that a 22-year-old California man, Evan Tangeman, has been sentenced to 70 months (approximately 5 years and 10 months) in prison, followed by 3 years of supervised release, for his involvement in a criminal organization that stole approximately $263 million in crypto assets through social engineering fraud and home invasions.According to court documents, Tangeman pleaded guilty in December 2025, admitting to helping the criminal network launder at least $3.5 million in illicit funds.The criminal group allegedly used the stolen funds for lavish spending, including multi-million dollar nightclub bills, Lamborghini sports cars, and high-end assets like Rolex watches.U.S. District Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, stated in a release that the organization "built a criminal system based on nearly absurd greed," emphasizing that Tangeman not only participated in money laundering but also destroyed evidence after his accomplices were arrested, demonstrating clear criminal intent.This sentencing comes as data shows that the crypto industry suffered $482 million in losses from scams and hacks in the first quarter of 2026, with social engineering fraud and physical violent robberies on the rise. (Cointelegraph)

Forbes: BTC Expectations for Return to $80,000 Rise as SEC Chair's Comments at Bitcoin 2026 Conference Draw Attention

: US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins recently reiterated the push for "Project Crypto" and announced plans to jointly develop a digital asset classification framework with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This framework will clarify when a token is deemed a security, while also introducing an "innovation exemption" to support the on-chain trading of tokenized securities.The market believes that the series of initiatives pushed by Paul Atkins represent one of the most aggressive shifts in crypto regulation in SEC history, marking a formal abandonment of the old “regulation by enforcement” model in favor of clear rule-making. This move could release a stronger entry signal for institutional capital that has been on the sidelines, potentially driving Bitcoin's price back above $80,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,586. The market is now focused on Atkins's further statements at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in late April. (Forbes)

BlackRock's IBIT Options Open Interest Surpasses Deribit for the First Time, Accelerating Bitcoin's Institutionalization Process

the open interest (OI) for options on the Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, issued by BlackRock, rose to $27.61 billion on Friday, surpassing the $26.9 billion in the Bitcoin options market on the crypto derivatives platform Deribit for the first time.According to Volmex data, the call options holdings in IBIT are primarily betting that the Bitcoin price will rise to $109,709 in the short term, approximately 41% higher than the current level of around $77,400. Meanwhile, the Deribit market mainly expects Bitcoin to rise to about $106,000. Additionally, the average time to maturity of IBIT options is about two months longer than those on Deribit, indicating that investors in the regulated U.S. market are more inclined towards long-term holdings and stronger bullish sentiment. This further highlights the accelerating trend of institutionalization in the Bitcoin market. (CoinDesk)

Kalshi Executive: Insider Trading Is Not Unique to Prediction Markets; It Requires Refined Solutions

Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."

Trump: Will Not Allow Banks to Obstruct Crypto Market Structure Legislation

Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)