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Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference

Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.

US Department of Justice Sentences Member of $263 Million Crypto Fraud Scheme to 70 Months in Prison, Involving Social Engineering Fraud and Lavish Money Laundering

: The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that a 22-year-old California man, Evan Tangeman, has been sentenced to 70 months (approximately 5 years and 10 months) in prison, followed by 3 years of supervised release, for his involvement in a criminal organization that stole approximately $263 million in crypto assets through social engineering fraud and home invasions.According to court documents, Tangeman pleaded guilty in December 2025, admitting to helping the criminal network launder at least $3.5 million in illicit funds.The criminal group allegedly used the stolen funds for lavish spending, including multi-million dollar nightclub bills, Lamborghini sports cars, and high-end assets like Rolex watches.U.S. District Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, stated in a release that the organization "built a criminal system based on nearly absurd greed," emphasizing that Tangeman not only participated in money laundering but also destroyed evidence after his accomplices were arrested, demonstrating clear criminal intent.This sentencing comes as data shows that the crypto industry suffered $482 million in losses from scams and hacks in the first quarter of 2026, with social engineering fraud and physical violent robberies on the rise. (Cointelegraph)

Forbes: BTC Expectations for Return to $80,000 Rise as SEC Chair's Comments at Bitcoin 2026 Conference Draw Attention

: US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins recently reiterated the push for "Project Crypto" and announced plans to jointly develop a digital asset classification framework with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This framework will clarify when a token is deemed a security, while also introducing an "innovation exemption" to support the on-chain trading of tokenized securities.The market believes that the series of initiatives pushed by Paul Atkins represent one of the most aggressive shifts in crypto regulation in SEC history, marking a formal abandonment of the old “regulation by enforcement” model in favor of clear rule-making. This move could release a stronger entry signal for institutional capital that has been on the sidelines, potentially driving Bitcoin's price back above $80,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,586. The market is now focused on Atkins's further statements at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in late April. (Forbes)

BlackRock's IBIT Options Open Interest Surpasses Deribit for the First Time, Accelerating Bitcoin's Institutionalization Process

the open interest (OI) for options on the Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, issued by BlackRock, rose to $27.61 billion on Friday, surpassing the $26.9 billion in the Bitcoin options market on the crypto derivatives platform Deribit for the first time.According to Volmex data, the call options holdings in IBIT are primarily betting that the Bitcoin price will rise to $109,709 in the short term, approximately 41% higher than the current level of around $77,400. Meanwhile, the Deribit market mainly expects Bitcoin to rise to about $106,000. Additionally, the average time to maturity of IBIT options is about two months longer than those on Deribit, indicating that investors in the regulated U.S. market are more inclined towards long-term holdings and stronger bullish sentiment. This further highlights the accelerating trend of institutionalization in the Bitcoin market. (CoinDesk)

Kalshi Executive: Insider Trading Is Not Unique to Prediction Markets; It Requires Refined Solutions

Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."

Trump: Will Not Allow Banks to Obstruct Crypto Market Structure Legislation

Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)

CFTC sues New York state to prevent it from applying gambling laws to prediction market applications

the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.

Lending protocol Purrlend suffered an attack, with losses of approximately $1.52 million

the lending protocol Purrlend was attacked on the MegaETH and HyperEVM networks, resulting in losses of approximately $1.52 million. The attacker extracted approximately $1.2 million in assets from the HyperEVM network, including 449,683 USDC, 214,125 USDT0, 194,745 USDH, and portions of UBTC, wstHYPE, UETH, kHYPE, and WHYPE. The attacker also extracted approximately $324,000 in assets from the MegaETH network, including USDT0, WETH, and USDm. Purrlend has since paused the protocol and launched an investigation. The attacker's address has been identified on the block explorers of both networks.

Fu Peng: BTC perpetual contracts usher in the “rental asset” era; the commodity ETF logic applies equally to Bitcoin.

Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group, posted on X stating that commodity ETFs are essentially regulatory-compliant products packaging the business model of “holding commodities long-term and generating rental income continuously.” Fund companies focus not on the commodity market’s outlook but rather on the asset’s ability to generate “rent” consistently. Since BitMEX launched the world’s first BTC perpetual contract and introduced the funding rate mechanism on May 13, 2016, long-term BTC holders have been able to earn rental income through hedging operations—transforming BTC from a pure faith-based speculative asset into a “rental asset” with stable positive cash flow logic. The costs paid by retail participants when trading derivatives constitute the foundation for large-position holders’ risk-free hedging rental income. This income is then packaged into ETF-like products sold to liquidity providers (LPs), whose raised capital is subsequently used to purchase Bitcoin—creating a virtuous cycle that reduces volatility and reinforces BTC’s income-generating attributes.

a16z: Stablecoins Are Becoming Global Payment Infrastructure, with Accelerating Localization Trends

According to a report released by a16z crypto researchers Robert Hackett and Jeremy Zhang, stablecoins are evolving from early-stage tools for trading and savings into core financial infrastructure. On the regulatory front, the U.S. GENIUS Act has established the first federal framework for stablecoin issuance. Although the European Union’s MiCA regulation—after coming into effect—led to the delisting of USDT from several exchanges, it has instead spurred sustained demand for non-U.S. dollar stablecoins, with monthly trading volume remaining steady in the $15–25 billion range. In terms of usage, consumer-to-business (C2B) stablecoin transaction volume grew 128% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 284.6 million transactions. Stablecoin velocity rose from 2.6x in early 2024 to 6x, indicating that existing supply is now being used more frequently for payments rather than held as savings. After excluding transactional and financial flow activity, an estimated $350–550 billion in stablecoin value in 2025 was attributable to genuine payment use cases. Geographically, nearly two-thirds of stablecoin payment volume originates from Asia (primarily Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan), roughly one-quarter comes from North America, and approximately 13% from Europe. Notably, cross-border transaction share has actually declined, while domestic transactions have risen from ~50% in early 2024 to nearly 75% by early 2026. The BRL-pegged stablecoin BRLA, for example, now sees monthly transfers totaling approximately $400 million—evidence of the growing adoption of localized stablecoin payments.

Colombia and the United States jointly dismantle CJNG’s cryptocurrency money laundering network, involving over $190 million

According to CriptoNoticias, citing Colombia’s El Tiempo newspaper, Colombian and U.S. law enforcement agencies jointly conducted an operation that successfully dismantled a transnational cryptocurrency money laundering network linked to Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Since 2023, the network has laundered over $190 million in illicit funds via cryptocurrency channels; multiple crypto wallets and cash were seized on-site. Investigations revealed that the network routinely employed techniques such as fund fragmentation, dispersal of transfers across multiple wallets, cross-jurisdictional fund movement, and token swapping to evade detection. Authorities have not yet disclosed details—including specific cryptocurrencies involved, trading platforms used, or the number of arrests made—and the investigation remains ongoing.

Singapore Police Force Collaborates with Cryptocurrency Platforms to Intercept Over S$2.86 Million in Fraud Proceeds Within a Month

According to the Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore’s Police Anti-Scam Centre and the Cybercrime Investigation Division collaborated with cryptocurrency platforms including Coinbase, Coinhako, StraitsX, and Upbit in a month-long targeted enforcement operation from March 16 to April 15 this year, successfully intercepting over S$2.86 million in scam proceeds. During the operation, authorities used analytical tools from blockchain intelligence firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis to identify victims involved in multiple scam categories—including impersonation of government officials, investment scams, job scams, and online romance scams—and carried out more than 90 direct interventions via telephone and in-person contact. The police stated that the operation’s success stemmed from a rapid information-sharing mechanism between law enforcement agencies and private-sector platforms, and emphasized their continued commitment to deepening public-private collaboration to counter increasingly sophisticated cryptocurrency scams.

France Sees Surge in Crypto-Related Kidnapping Cases; Pnaco Has Filed Charges Against 88 Individuals

According to Le Monde, France’s National Prosecutor’s Office for Organized Crime (PNACO) revealed that ransom kidnappings linked to cryptocurrencies have surged sharply since 2023—18 cases in 2024, escalating to 67 in 2025, and reaching 47 so far in 2026, totaling 135 cases. Among the 12 ongoing investigations, 88 individuals—including over 10 minors—have been formally charged, and 75 have been placed in provisional detention. Prosecutor Vanessa Pereira noted that investigations have identified multiple suspects repeatedly involved across several cases, revealing the existence of a structured criminal network. Representative cases include: in December 2025, three masked assailants in Charente forced a couple to transfer approximately €8 million worth of cryptocurrency; and in January 2025, David Balland, co-founder of cryptocurrency hardware wallet company Ledger, was kidnapped. PNACO stated it will continue intensifying nationwide criminal enforcement efforts.

U.S. soldier who illegally profited $400,000 on Polymarket had previously been denied an account by Kalshi

According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.

California Money Launderer Sentenced to 70 Months in Prison for Role in $263 Million Cryptocurrency Theft

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Evan Tangeman, a 22-year-old man from Newport Beach, California, was sentenced on April 24 to 70 months in federal prison followed by three years of supervised release by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Tangeman participated in an interstate social engineering crime ring that laundered at least $3.5 million. The criminal group operated since October 2023, stealing over $263 million in cryptocurrency through hacking and social engineering tactics. Its members were predominantly minors or unemployed youths under age 20, and the group originated on online gaming platforms. Tangeman was responsible for converting stolen cryptocurrency into fiat currency and leasing luxury mansions for group members in cities including Los Angeles and Miami; he personally received high-end vehicles—including a Bentley and a Lamborghini—as compensation. After the scheme unraveled, Tangeman instructed his co-conspirators to destroy digital devices to obstruct the investigation. The case was jointly investigated by the FBI’s Washington, Los Angeles, and Miami field offices, along with the IRS Criminal Investigation Division. To date, nine defendants have pleaded guilty.

CFTC Submits Brief to Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Defending Federal Regulatory Authority Over Prediction Markets

According to an announcement on the CFTC’s official website, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court on April 24, reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over U.S. commodity derivatives markets—including prediction markets—in the case of Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEx LLC (SJC-13906). CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that Congress has granted the CFTC sole regulatory authority over commodity derivatives markets and warned that any state attempting to override federal law “will see us in court.” The brief details the legislative history and framework of the Commodity Exchange Act, clarifying that the federal regulatory regime preempts state laws on related matters. Previously, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, and New York, and successfully obtained a temporary restraining order against Arizona, preventing it from asserting state-level jurisdiction over prediction markets regulated by the CFTC.

Tennessee Imposes Full Ban on Cryptocurrency ATMs, with Violators Facing Up to One Year in Prison

According to The Block, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed House Bill 2505 on April 13, officially classifying cryptocurrency ATMs (virtual currency self-service terminals) as prohibited devices. The law will take effect on July 1, 2026. Passed unanimously by both chambers of the state legislature, the bill bans the installation or operation of cryptocurrency ATMs statewide. Violators face Class A misdemeanor charges, carrying a maximum penalty of one year’s imprisonment and a $2,500 fine. Notably, liability under this law extends not only to ATM operators but also to merchants permitting such devices on their premises. Tennessee thus becomes the second U.S. state—after Indiana—to implement a comprehensive ban. Previously, cryptocurrency ATMs had been extensively exploited by overseas fraudsters for financial scams; in 2025 alone, these scams caused approximately $390 million in losses, predominantly targeting elderly individuals. To date, 20 U.S. states have enacted regulatory frameworks governing cryptocurrency ATMs, though most adopt measures such as licensing requirements and transaction limits rather than outright prohibition.

White House: Investigation into Powell still ongoing

The White House says the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell is still ongoing. The case against the Fed will not necessarily be dropped.

Tennessee Bans Crypto ATMs Statewide, Escalating Regulatory Crackdown on Scams

Odaily BlockBeats News Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has signed a bill banning cryptocurrency ATM operations statewide, making Tennessee the second state to implement a complete ban after Indiana.The bill (HB 2505) has officially taken effect and will be enforced starting July 1. Under the new regulations, installing or operating a "virtual currency kiosk" (i.e., a Bitcoin ATM) will be classified as a Class A misdemeanor, punishable by up to one year in jail and a fine of $2,500. Additionally, merchants who allow such machines on their premises will also face legal liability.Currently, most U.S. states have strengthened oversight through measures such as licensing systems and transaction limits, but full bans remain rare. Data indicates that since 2026, 30 states have proposed related legislation, with 20 having passed laws, reflecting a continuous tightening of regulations around crypto ATM fraud risks.

Polymarket probability of "Walsh confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15" rises to 85%, surging 211% in short term

According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, the probability of "Walsh confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15" on Polymarket has risen from 27% to 85%, surging 211% in the short term.The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Previously, Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that if Trump does not withdraw the criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Powell, he would block Walsh's nomination for Fed Chair from reaching a full Senate vote.Under the influence of the news that the DOJ will drop the criminal investigation into Powell, the market now expects a very high likelihood of Walsh being confirmed by the Senate as Fed Chair before Powell's term expires (May 15).The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets — seeing changes before prices are set.